NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged higher on Tuesday as prices closed at 13.72, but the contract continues to trade below the 10 DMA at 13.88 and remains capped beneath the 40 DMA at 14.59 and the 100 DMA, which is also sitting around the mid-14.00s. The broader structure therefore remains weak, even if the latest session showed some tentative stabilisation above the 13.34 support level.
The stochastics remain in oversold territory, but %K is holding above %D and both lines are trying to turn from low levels, suggesting that downside momentum is beginning to ease after the recent slide. Even so, the MACD diff remains negative and continues to diverge on the downside, which indicates that selling pressure has not yet fully cleared. This leaves the market in a fragile position, where the latest green candle looks more like a pause in the decline than a confirmed reversal.
To improve the near-term outlook, futures need to reclaim the 10 DMA and then close back above resistance at 14.30. A move through this area would help stabilise the structure and bring the longer-term averages back into view. On the downside, a failure to build on Tuesday’s bounce would leave 13.34 exposed again, and a break below there would reinforce the broader bearish trend. For now, NY sugar looks to be trying to base, but the chart still points to a cautious near-term tone unless short-term resistance is recovered.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged higher on Tuesday, closing at 419.50 and finishing back above the 10 DMA at 416.47. However, prices are still below the 100 DMA at 421.52 and the 40 DMA at 426.04, which means the recent rebound has not yet done enough to shift the broader bearish structure. The market has nonetheless found support well above the February low at 393.80, and the latest candle suggests buyers are trying to steady the market after the recent setback.
The stochastics are recovering from low levels, with %K above %D and both lines rising from near-oversold territory, indicating that near-term momentum is improving. By contrast, the MACD diff remains negative and is still diverging on the downside, which shows that the recovery in price has yet to be fully confirmed by the trend indicators. That combination points to a market that is stabilising, but one that still needs stronger follow-through to repair the chart.
To confirm a more constructive near-term outlook, futures need to reclaim the 100 DMA and 40 DMA around 421.50-426.00, which would then open the way for a retest of 434.30. On the downside, a move back below the 10 DMA would weaken the latest recovery attempt and shift attention back towards support at 392.65. Overall, Ldn sugar is showing early signs of stabilisation, but the broader tone remains cautious while prices remain below the key medium-term averages.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged lower on Tuesday as prices closed at 290.40, slipping back below the 10 DMA at 292.04 and the 40 DMA at 291.66. While this weakens the immediate short-term structure, futures are still holding comfortably above the recent base in the 280 area, suggesting the market remains in a consolidation phase rather than resuming the broader downtrend outright. The 100 DMA at 320.44 continues to cap the wider outlook, and the 314.75 level remains the key upside barrier on the chart.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D holding in positive territory and pointing to some underlying recovery momentum, while the MACD diff remains positive, indicating that downside pressure has continued to ease despite Tuesday’s softer close. That said, the failure to hold above both the 10 DMA and 40 DMA suggests buying appetite is still not strong enough to confirm a more durable recovery.
To strengthen the near-term outlook, futures need to reclaim the short-term averages and then close above the 300 area, which would open the way for a test of 314.75. On the downside, failure to hold the recent range would leave the market vulnerable to another move back towards 280. For now, the market looks rangebound with a mildly constructive undertone, but it still needs a clearer break higher to confirm that the recovery has further to run.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures edged lower on Tuesday, closing at 3339, but importantly they remained above the 10 DMA at 3306. Prices are still well below the 40 DMA at 3517 and the 100 DMA at 3776, so the broader trend remains bearish, yet the ability to hold above the 10 DMA suggests the recent rebound from support at 3166 is still intact for now.
Momentum indicators remain constructive on a short-term basis. The stochastics are rising, with %K above %D and both lines moving higher, which points to continuing recovery momentum. The MACD diff is also positive, suggesting the recent bounce still has some underlying support even though the MACD line itself remains in negative territory. In other words, bearish longer-term conditions remain in place, but the near-term tone has improved.
To confirm a stronger corrective recovery, futures need to build above the 10 DMA and then take out resistance at the 40 DMA, which would expose a move towards 3600 and potentially higher. On the downside, a break back below the 10 DMA would weaken the rebound and shift attention back to support at 3166. Overall, Ldn coffee is showing tentative recovery signals, but rallies are still likely to be viewed as corrective unless futures can reclaim the 40 DMA decisively.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower on Tuesday as prices closed at 3308, slipping back below the 10 DMA at 3385 while continuing to hold above the 40 DMA at 3272. Futures remain well beneath the 200 DMA at 5679, so the broader trend is still bearish, but the ability to hold above the 40 DMA shows that the market is trying to stabilise after the rebound from the 2846 low.
The MACD diff remains positive, suggesting upside momentum has not fully faded, although the stochastics have turned lower, with %K slipping below %D around the mid-range, which points to waning short-term buying pressure. To maintain the recent recovery structure, futures need to defend the 40 DMA and then reclaim the 10 DMA, which would reopen the way towards the recent highs in the 3500 area. Failure to hold above the 40 DMA would weaken the near-term tone and leave the market vulnerable to a retest of 3000 and then the 2846 low.
The latest candle suggests hesitation rather than renewed trend strength, so while the market is still trying to base, the near-term tone looks more rangebound and cautious unless prices can regain the short-term average.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures also edged lower on Tuesday, closing at 2458, with prices easing back below the 10 DMA at 2485 but still holding above the 40 DMA at 2380. Futures remain far below the 200 DMA at 4000, keeping the broader trend firmly bearish, though the rebound from the 2015 low is still intact for now.
The MACD diff is positive and remains supportive, indicating that the recent recovery has not fully broken down, but the stochastics have softened, with %K falling below %D in the middle of the range, which suggests near-term momentum is fading. Technically, the 40 DMA is now the key support to watch. Holding above this level would keep the recovery phase alive and could allow futures to retest the 2500 area and then the recent highs near 2600. A break back below the 40 DMA, however, would signal that the rebound is losing traction and expose the market to a deeper move back towards 2200 and potentially the 2050 support area.
The latest candle points to a pause in the rebound rather than a decisive reversal, but the market needs to rebuild strength above the 10 DMA to restore a more constructive near-term outlook.
