NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures traded in a volatile session on Friday but settled marginally lower at 14.63, down 0.10 on the day. The wide intraday range reflects continued uncertainty, with prices ultimately closing below the 10 DMA at 14.77 and the 40 DMA at 14.71 but still above the 100 DMA at 14.55. The failure to hold above the short‑term averages keeps the near‑term tone soft, although the 100 DMA continues to provide a floor.
The stochastics are in the lower range, with %K at 31.42 marginally above %D at 30.45, suggesting that downside momentum has stabilised but is not yet turning higher. The MACD diff is negative at -0.07 and widening, indicating that underlying weakness persists.
To confirm further downside, futures need to break below the 100 DMA at 14.55, with a move below 14.30 exposing the April low at 13.34. On the upside, a close above the 10 and 40 DMA cluster around 14.71–14.77 is needed to ease immediate pressure and open a move towards 15.00. For now, the market remains caught between short‑term resistance and medium‑term support, with the volatile but flat session reflecting a lack of conviction in either direction.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures also traded in a volatile range on Friday, closing marginally lower at 441.20, down 1.50 on the session. Despite the slight decline, futures remain above all key moving averages — the 10 DMA at 437.61, the 40 DMA at 432.74 and the 100 DMA at 425.92 — confirming that the broader recovery structure from the 393.80 low is intact.
The stochastics are rising, with %K at 65.44 above %D at 56.31, indicating improving upside momentum. The MACD diff is barely positive at 0.003, suggesting that the market is at a neutral inflection point, with neither clear bullish nor bearish conviction from the indicator.
To confirm further upside, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA and push through resistance around 445, which would open the way towards 450 and potentially higher. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA at 437.61 would signal fading momentum, with the 40 DMA at 432.74 as the next support. For now, the constructive position above all key averages and rising stochastics suggest a moderately supportive near‑term outlook, although the volatile but flat close highlights that the market still needs a catalyst to break higher.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged lower on Friday, settling at 242.10, down 0.30 on the session as prices continued to drift near the lows. The marginal decline highlights a lack of buying interest, with futures trading well below the 100 DMA at 291.38 and remaining beneath the former support at 255.65, which now acts as resistance.
The structure remains firmly bearish, with prices consolidating at depressed levels rather than showing any meaningful signs of stabilisation.
The MACD diff is negative at -1.83 and widening, confirming that selling pressure continues to build. The MACD line at -9.93 is well below the signal line at -8.11, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
To confirm further downside, futures need to break below the 242 area, which would open the way towards 230. On the upside, any recovery attempt would first need to reclaim 255.65 before challenging the 100 DMA at 291.38. For now, the gradual drift lower signals that the market remains under pressure, with no evidence of a base forming at current levels.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee futures fell on Friday, closing at 3233, down 37 on the session as selling pressure intensified and prices moved further away from key averages. Futures remain below the 10 DMA at 3337, the 40 DMA at 3376 and the 100 DMA at 3584, confirming that the bearish structure is firmly intact and that the gap between prices and resistance levels is widening. The decline brings futures closer to the critical support at 3166, which now becomes the key level to watch.
The stochastics are deep in oversold territory, with %K at 13.70 below %D at 21.80, indicating dominant downside momentum with no signs of turning. The MACD diff is negative at -14.26 and widening sharply, suggesting that selling pressure is accelerating rather than stabilising.
To confirm continuation lower, futures need to break below the 3166 support, which would expose the 3000 level. On the upside, a recovery requires a close above the 10 DMA at 3337, with a push through the 40 DMA at 3376 needed to ease the immediate bearish pressure. For now, the sharper decline compared to New York highlights increasing vulnerability in London, with the deeply oversold stochastics offering the only potential for a short‑term technical bounce.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures fell sharply on Friday, settling at 3840, down 5.04% on the session as selling pressure intensified and prices broke below the 40 DMA at 3849. The move is technically significant, as futures are now trading below both the 10 DMA at 4066 and the 40 DMA, undermining the recovery structure that had been building from the 2846 low. Prices remain well below the 200 DMA at 5053, reinforcing the broader corrective trend. The spike in volume highlights conviction behind the sell‑off.
The stochastics are falling, with %K at 39.67 below %D at 45.05, confirming weakening momentum and a clear downside shift. The MACD diff is negative at -42.44 and widening sharply, indicating that selling pressure is accelerating.
To confirm continuation lower, futures need to remain below the 40 DMA and break through support at 3700, which would expose a move towards 3500 and potentially a retest of the 2846 low. On the upside, a recovery would need to reclaim the 40 DMA at 3849 and then the 10 DMA at 4066 to stabilise the near‑term picture. For now, the break below the 40 DMA marks a significant deterioration in the technical outlook, with the recent recovery now at risk of unwinding.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
