NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower on Thursday, settling at 14.34, down 0.05 on the session as prices continued to drift beneath all key moving averages. Futures remain below the 10 DMA at 14.64, the 40 DMA at 14.77 and the 100 DMA at 14.55, confirming a weak near‑term structure. The market is now approaching the 14.30 support level, which has held on multiple occasions and is the last line of defence before the April low at 13.34.
The stochastics are weak, with %K at 18.16 below %D at 24.80, indicating that downside momentum remains dominant and is nearing oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative at -0.077 and widening, confirming that selling pressure persists and has not yet shown signs of easing.
To confirm further downside, futures need to break below 14.30, which would expose a move towards the April low at 13.34. On the upside, a recovery requires a close back above the 100 DMA at 14.55 and then the 10 DMA at 14.64 to ease immediate pressure. For now, the proximity to 14.30 makes this a critical juncture — a hold would suggest support is intact, while a break would mark a significant bearish development.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures edged higher on Thursday, closing at 440.90, up 3.20 on the session as prices pushed marginally above the 10 DMA at 440.03. Futures remain above the 40 DMA at 435.08 and the 100 DMA at 426.62, confirming that the broader recovery structure from the 393.80 low continues to hold. The close above the 10 DMA is a constructive signal, though it requires follow‑through to confirm.
The stochastics are rising, with %K at 63.58 above %D at 62.33, indicating improving upside momentum. The MACD diff is marginally negative at -0.17, suggesting that the market is at a neutral inflection point and beginning to transition towards a more supportive footing.
To confirm further upside, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA and push through resistance around 445, which would open the way towards the mid‑450s. On the downside, a move back below the 10 DMA at 440.03 would signal fading momentum, with the 40 DMA at 435.08 as the next support. For now, the constructive close above all key averages and improving stochastics keep the near‑term outlook moderately supportive, contrasting with the weaker picture in New York.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures rebounded on Thursday, settling at 250.25, up 5.65 on the session as buying interest returned after the recent sell‑off. The move took prices back above the 10 DMA at 247.53, which is a constructive short‑term signal, although futures remain well below the 40 DMA at 271.30 and the 100 DMA at 287.57. The former support at 255.65 now acts as overhead resistance and will need to be reclaimed to confirm a more meaningful recovery.
The stochastics are turning higher from oversold levels, with %K at 20.91 above %D at 13.62, indicating that downside momentum is easing and a short‑term recovery may be developing. The MACD diff is negative at -0.26 but is narrowing, suggesting that selling pressure is stabilising rather than building.
To confirm a stronger recovery, futures need to close above the 255.65 resistance, which would then open the way towards the 40 DMA at 271.30. On the downside, a failure to hold above the 10 DMA and a move back below 240 would signal that the bounce was corrective and expose fresh lows. For now, the rebound and the turn in stochastics offer the first constructive signal in several sessions, but the market needs to reclaim key resistance to shift the broader outlook.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee futures also moved higher on Thursday, closing at 3395, up 98 on the session as the market pushed above both the 10 DMA at 3296 and the 40 DMA at 3379. The close above both short‑term averages is a notable improvement in the technical picture, although futures remain below the 100 DMA at 3557, keeping the broader trend under pressure. The strength of the move highlights renewed buying interest after the recent drift towards the 3166 support.
The stochastics are rising, with %K at 42.39 above %D at 26.62, confirming improving upside momentum. The MACD diff has turned positive at 1.64, signalling that the balance is shifting from sellers to buyers for the first time in the recent move lower.
To confirm further upside, futures need to hold above the 40 DMA and push towards the 3500 level, with a move through this area needed to challenge the 100 DMA at 3557. On the downside, a failure to hold above the 10 DMA at 3296 would signal that the recovery has stalled, with the 3166 support as the next key level. For now, the close above both short‑term averages and the positive MACD diff crossover represent the strongest recovery signal in recent weeks, though follow‑through is needed to confirm a shift in the near‑term outlook.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower on Thursday, settling at 3798, down 1.15% on the session as selling pressure continued and prices broke below the 40 DMA at 3888. The move is technically significant, with futures now trading below both the 10 DMA at 3963 and the 40 DMA, leaving the market without near‑term average support for the first time during the recent recovery phase. Prices remain well below the 200 DMA at 4973, reinforcing the broader corrective trend.
The stochastics are weak, with %K at 15.41 below %D at 26.05, indicating that downside momentum is dominant and approaching deeply oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative at -52.35 and widening sharply, confirming that selling pressure is accelerating.
To confirm further downside, futures need to remain below the 40 DMA and break through support at 3700, which would expose a move towards 3500. A break below this level would increase the risk of a retest of the 2846 low. On the upside, a recovery requires a close back above the 40 DMA at 3888 and then the 10 DMA at 3963 to stabilise the near‑term picture. For now, the loss of both short‑term averages and deeply oversold stochastics highlight a vulnerable market, with the risk of further weakness unless support at 3700 holds.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
