NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures rallied strongly on Tuesday as prices extended the upside move and closed at 18.46. Futures broke above the previous resistance around 18.00, confirming stronger appetite for higher prices after the recent acceleration from the mid-July consolidation area. The market is now trading well above the 10 DMA at 17.43, while the 40 DMA at 15.95 and 100 DMA at 15.22 remain firmly below current levels, highlighting a clear bullish shift in the short-term structure.
The stochastics are rising in overbought territory, with %K/%D at 91.76/88.36, suggesting strong upside momentum, although the market is becoming increasingly stretched. The MACD diff is positive at 0.1798, with the MACD line above the signal line, confirming continued buying pressure.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above 18.00 and then target the next resistance level at 19.00. A break above this level could set the scene for an extension towards 19.50, especially if the MACD diff continues to widen on the upside. On the downside, a failure to hold above 18.00 could trigger a test of the 10 DMA at 17.43, which now acts as the key short-term support. A break below this level would weaken the recent bullish momentum and could see futures move back towards the 16.50-16.00 area.
The latest candle shows strong buying appetite, with futures closing near the highs of the recent move, but overbought stochastics suggest that some consolidation cannot be ruled out before another leg higher. We expect futures to remain supported in the near term, but a sustained close above 19.00 is needed to confirm further upside momentum.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures rallied sharply on Tuesday as futures extended the recent upside move and closed at 534.60. The market broke above the 520 level and is now trading comfortably above the 10 DMA at 506.69, while the 40 DMA at 474.13 and 100 DMA at 450.98 remain well below current prices. This confirms that the short-term trend has strengthened and that the market has moved decisively away from the previous consolidation range.
The stochastics are rising in overbought territory, with %K/%D at 93.59/90.05, suggesting strong upside momentum but also signalling that the rally is becoming stretched. The MACD diff is positive at 4.7567, with the MACD line above the signal line, highlighting growing buying pressure and confirming the constructive technical outlook.
To confirm the bullish outlook, futures need to hold above 520 and then target resistance around 540. A break above this level could set the scene for a further move higher, with futures likely to search for the next resistance area above the current chart range. On the downside, a break back below 520 would weaken the immediate bullish structure and could trigger a test of the 10 DMA at 506.69. A close below this moving average would suggest that the rally is losing momentum and could open the way back towards the 40 DMA at 474.13.
The latest candle shows firm upside pressure, with futures closing close to recent highs, although the overbought stochastics suggest that the market may need to consolidate before extending gains further. We expect the near-term outlook to remain constructive, but futures need to confirm appetite above 540 to sustain the bullish momentum.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures rallied on Tuesday as futures gained 14.55 and closed at 332.45, extending the recovery from the late-July consolidation area. The market moved back above the 10 DMA at 316.05 and the 40 DMA at 310.91, while the 100 DMA at 289.77 remains firmly below current levels, suggesting that the short-term structure has turned more constructive.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D at 68.30/57.85, signalling renewed upside momentum without yet being fully overbought. The MACD diff is positive at 0.7224, with the MACD line above the signal line, highlighting improving buying pressure after the recent loss of momentum in July.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA at 316.05 and then take out resistance around 335-350. A break above this area could set the scene for a retest of the late-June highs, with the 350 level the key confirmation point for stronger upside momentum. On the downside, a failure to hold above the 10 DMA could trigger a test of the 40 DMA at 310.91, before the market looks towards 300 and then the 100 DMA at 289.77.
The latest candle is constructive, with futures closing firmly above the short-term moving averages, suggesting stronger appetite for higher prices. However, the market still needs to break above the recent resistance area to confirm a more sustained bullish outlook. We expect futures to remain supported in the near term, provided prices hold above the 316-311 DMA support zone.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures edged lower on Tuesday as selling pressure pushed futures down by 50 to close at 3594. The market remains below the 10 DMA at 3764 and the 40 DMA at 3771, suggesting that upside momentum has faded after the July rally. Futures are now testing the area just above the 100 DMA at 3549, which is the key support level shaping the short-term outlook.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D at 17.29/27.23, leaving %K in oversold territory and signalling continued bearish momentum. The MACD diff is negative at -28.27, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming growing selling pressure.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the 100 DMA at 3549 and then take out the 3500 level. A close below this area could set the scene for a deeper move lower, with the market then targeting the previous support zone around 3400 before the broader support level at 3166. On the upside, futures need to reclaim the 10 and 40 DMAs at 3764 and 3771 to ease the current bearish pressure. A close back above this resistance area could trigger a test of 3900, but until then, the market remains vulnerable to further weakness.
The latest candle shows continued selling pressure, with futures closing close to the lower end of the recent range, although the proximity of the 100 DMA and oversold stochastics suggest that some stabilisation cannot be ruled out. We expect the near-term outlook to remain weak unless futures can hold above the 100 DMA and recover back above the 10 and 40 DMAs.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower on Tuesday as futures lost 2.47% and closed at 5919, with prices remaining below the recent resistance band but still holding above the 10 DMA at 5857 and the 40 DMA at 5599. The market has continued to trade within the broader 5325-6459 range, with the 5325 level acting as key support and the 6458.80 level capping the upside.
The stochastics are broadly neutral, with %K/%D at 50.66/51.30, suggesting that momentum has softened after the previous recovery but has not yet turned decisively bearish. The MACD diff is negative at -12.74, with the MACD line below the signal line, highlighting a loss of upside momentum and signalling that selling pressure is beginning to build.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the 10 DMA at 5857 and then take out the 40 DMA at 5599. A close below these levels could set the scene for a move back towards the key support at 5325.08, which remains essential for shaping the short-term downside outlook. A break below this support would confirm stronger bearish momentum and could open the way towards the 5000 area, before the 200 DMA at 4656 comes back into focus. On the upside, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA and then break back above the 6000 level to ease the immediate pressure. A sustained move above 6000 could trigger a test of the recent resistance at 6458.80, and a break above this level would be needed to confirm a stronger bullish outlook.
The latest candle suggests indecision, with prices still holding above short-term support but failing to generate enough appetite to challenge the upper end of the range. We expect cocoa futures to remain rangebound in the near term, with the market needing a break above 6000 to rebuild upside momentum, while a close below the 40 DMA would shift the focus back to lower prices.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
