NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures weakened marginally on Friday as prices struggled to break below support at 18.20, before closing slightly higher at 18.24. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D now in oversold territory, while the MACD diff is negative and diverging, pointing to growing selling pressure across the indicators. To confirm a stronger downside move, futures need to break below 18.20 and then target 18.00, with the 40 DMA at 17.86 providing the next robust support level. A break below this area would suggest stronger conviction on the downside. On the upside, reaffirmation of support at 18.20 could set the scene for a move back towards the 10 DMA at 18.98 and then 19.00, confirming the inverse hammer formation. While the indicators still point to selling pressure, oversold conditions and the inverse hammer suggest momentum could start to shift higher in the near term. To confirm a trend reversal, however, prices would need to break above near-term resistance at 18.50.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures held their nerve on Friday after Thursday’s sell-off, closing at 514.90, in line with Thursday’s lows. The stochastics are nearing oversold territory, while the MACD diff is negative and diverging. However, the shrinking volume profile suggests downside conviction may be waning, raising the prospect of a reversal higher. To confirm this, futures would need to regain a footing above 520 before retesting the 10 DMA at 526.87. Conversely, the 40 DMA at 509.48 is now emerging as a robust support level; a break below this could trigger further losses towards 500. The gravestone doji highlights rejection of higher prices, but the market has yet to show enough conviction to break above near-term resistance. We expect prices to remain range-bound in the near term before potentially gaining upside momentum.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged marginally higher on Friday, with intraday trade finding support above 276.10, a level that has held firm over the past two sessions. The market closed at 280.50. The %K/%D is positive and diverging, strengthening out of oversold territory and sending a strong buy signal. Meanwhile, the MACD diff is negative but converging, suggesting waning selling pressure. The indicators point to higher prices in the near term, but futures need to take out 282 first. A break above this level towards the 10 DMA at 286.55 would confirm improving bullish momentum and a potential trend change. Conversely, a break below 276 could trigger a test of 265. A positive candle with a longer lower wick suggests limited appetite on the downside, but a break above 282 is needed to confirm further gains.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures held their nerve on Friday, with intraday trade closing at 3396. The %K/%D is falling, while the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting further appetite for lower prices. However, futures need to break below 3300 to trigger stronger downside momentum. A break below this level could then open the way towards 3250. Conversely, appetite for prices above the 10 DMA at 3465 could trigger a test of resistance at the 100 DMA at 3584. The long-legged doji highlights indecision, with prices trading between the 10 DMA and 3400, while the length of the wicks also points to increased intraday volatility. The indicators point to further downside, but futures need to close below 3300 — a level they have struggled to break in recent sessions — to confirm the move.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures sold off on Friday as a lack of appetite for higher prices confirmed rejection on the upside, prompting a break below the cluster of moving-average support levels and a close at 5446. The stochastics are topping out and starting to fall, while the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. The sell-off and close near the lows point to appetite below current support at 5325, although futures struggled to break through this level. A break below 5325 could set the scene for a test of support at 5000. On the upside, the 10 DMA at 5936 now provides strong overhead resistance. With prices closing below the 10 DMA and indicators turning bearish, we expect prices to soften in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
