NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower on Tuesday as modest selling pressure saw prices close at 19.87. Futures settled marginally below the 10 DMA at 19.92 after struggling to sustain the latest move above 20.00. However, prices remain comfortably above the rising 40 and 100 DMAs at 19.17 and 17.10, respectively, preserving the broader bullish structure. The repeated failure to extend gains beyond the recent highs nevertheless suggests that resistance around 20.20–20.30 is limiting the upside.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D at 53.51/58.91 and %K below %D, signalling fading buying momentum and further appetite for lower prices. The MACD diff remains marginally positive at 0.0078, with the MACD line at 0.3883 just above the signal line at 0.3805. However, the near-convergence of the two lines indicates that the positive momentum is weakening and leaves the MACD vulnerable to a downside crossover.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to remain below the 10 DMA at 19.92 and break through support around 19.50. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a test of the 40 DMA at 19.17. A break below the 40 DMA would weaken the broader bullish structure and bring 19.00 and then 18.50 into focus. On the upside, futures need to recover above 20.00 before taking out resistance around 20.20–20.30. A sustained close above this area would confirm renewed appetite for higher prices and could trigger a move towards 20.50.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged lower on Tuesday as continued selling pressure from the recent highs saw prices close at 561.20. Futures settled below the 10 DMA at 564.87 after failing to sustain the move towards 575. Nevertheless, prices remain well above the rising 40 and 100 DMAs at 536.42 and 495.93, respectively, maintaining the broader upward trend. The recent sequence of lower closes, however, suggests that the market is undergoing a correction following its strong late-September advance.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 45.82/55.62. The move into the middle of the range signals a clear loss of buying momentum without yet indicating oversold conditions, leaving scope for further weakness. The MACD diff remains marginally positive at 0.3478, with the MACD line at 12.1756 above the signal line at 11.8277. However, the differential has narrowed substantially, showing that the earlier buying pressure is fading and increasing the risk of a bearish crossover.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to remain below the 10 DMA at 564.87 and break through support around 560. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 550, followed by the more robust support of the 40 DMA at 536.42. On the upside, futures need to recover above the 10 DMA before testing resistance around 570. A close above 575 would invalidate the current correction and confirm renewed appetite for higher prices towards 580.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures rallied strongly on Tuesday as renewed buying pressure saw prices close at 299.00. Futures moved decisively above the 10 DMA at 288.63 and the 40 DMA at 289.30, while also breaking through the 100 DMA at 293.97. This improves the short-term technical structure and places the market immediately below the psychological resistance at 300. The 40 DMA remains marginally below the 100 DMA, however, meaning the broader moving-average structure has not yet completed a bullish reversal.
The stochastics remain in overbought territory, with %K/%D at 80.54/83.61. %K remains below %D, suggesting that buying momentum has not fully recovered despite Tuesday’s strong price advance. Conversely, the MACD diff is positive and diverging at 2.98, with the MACD line at 1.40 above the signal line at -1.58. The MACD line has moved above zero, strengthening the positive momentum signal and confirming that selling pressure is receding.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above 300 and establish support beyond this level. A sustained close above 300 could set the scene for a move towards 310, followed by the more substantial resistance area around 320. On the downside, a failure to retain support above the 100 DMA at 293.97 could trigger a test of the closely aligned 40 and 10 DMAs at 289.30 and 288.63, respectively. A close below this support area would weaken the latest breakout and bring 280 back into focus.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures edged higher on Tuesday as buying interest at lower levels saw prices close at 3424. Despite the positive session, futures remained below the closely aligned 10 and 40 DMAs at 3437 and 3444, respectively, leaving immediate resistance directly above the market. The 100 DMA at 3586 remains substantially higher, maintaining the weaker broader structure after the market’s rejection from the 3600 area. Prices nevertheless continue to hold above the September low, with the 3400 area providing immediate support.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D at 22.19/26.27 and %K remaining below %D. Both lines are approaching oversold territory, signalling continued bearish momentum but also indicating that the recent decline is becoming stretched. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive at 5.86, with the MACD line at -11.60 above the signal line at -17.45, suggesting that broader selling pressure has continued to moderate. However, both MACD lines remain below zero, while the modest positive differential leaves the recovery without firm bullish confirmation.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the immediate support at 3400 and then take out 3350. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 3300, followed by the September support area around 3220–3250. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support around 3400 could encourage a recovery above the 10 and 40 DMAs at 3437 and 3444. A close above this resistance area could trigger a test of 3500, although futures would need to break above the 100 DMA at 3586 to confirm a more sustained improvement.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher on Tuesday as buying interest saw prices close at 5921. Futures moved above the 10 DMA at 5815 and marginally above the 40 DMA at 5892, improving the short-term technical structure after the recent consolidation. The rising 100 DMA at 5485 remains comfortably below current prices and continues to provide robust longer-term support. However, the market is approaching the psychological resistance at 6000, which has repeatedly constrained gains.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 62.39/45.36, signalling renewed buying momentum without yet reaching overbought territory. The MACD diff is positive and diverging at 21.88, with the MACD line at 6.78 above the signal line at -15.10. The MACD line has also moved above zero, strengthening the constructive momentum signal and suggesting that selling pressure has continued to recede.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to remain above the 40 DMA at 5892 and break through resistance at 6000. A sustained close above this level could set the scene for a move towards 6200, followed by the more substantial resistance area around 6500. On the downside, a failure to retain support above the 40 DMA could trigger a test of the 10 DMA at 5815. A close below this average would weaken the recovery and bring 5700 into focus, followed by the more robust support of the 100 DMA at 5485.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Lnd cocoa futures edged higher on Tuesday as buying interest saw prices close at 4445. Futures remained above the 10 DMA at 4407 and the 40 DMA at 4382, preserving the improving short-term structure and maintaining the recovery from the September lows. The rising 100 DMA at 4073 remains well below the market, supporting the broader constructive trend. Nevertheless, futures continue to trade within the established consolidation range, with resistance around 4500 repeatedly limiting the upside.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 54.65/42.71, signalling improving buying momentum from the middle of the range. The MACD diff is positive at 6.35, with the MACD line at 28.78 above the signal line at 22.43, confirming that the underlying momentum remains constructive. However, the relatively narrow differential suggests that buying pressure is improving only gradually.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above the 10 and 40 DMAs at 4407 and 4382, respectively, and break through resistance at 4500. A sustained close above this level could set the scene for a move towards 4600, followed by the more substantial resistance area around 4800. On the downside, a break below the moving-average support at 4382–4407 would weaken the recovery and could trigger a test of 4300. A close below this level would bring 4200 into focus, followed by the 100 DMA at 4073.
