NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures fell sharply on Thursday as sustained selling pressure pushed prices below the 10 DMA at 19.92 to close at 19.52. Futures remain above the rising 40 DMA at 19.23 and the 100 DMA at 17.20, preserving the broader bullish structure, but the latest decline extends the rejection from the recent highs above 20.00. The 40 DMA is now the critical support level protecting the medium-term upside trend.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 22.81/41.81. %K is approaching oversold territory, signalling pronounced bearish momentum, although the decline could become increasingly stretched around current levels. The MACD diff has converged on the downside and turned negative at -0.0504, with the MACD line at 0.3139 below the signal line at 0.3643, confirming a loss of buying momentum and supporting the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the 40 DMA at 19.23 and then take out the psychological support at 19.00. A sustained close below these levels could set the scene for a move towards 18.50, followed by the September support around 18.00. On the upside, futures need to recover above the 10 DMA at 19.92 and regain 20.00 to ease the immediate bearish pressure. A close above the recent resistance around 20.30 would be required to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Lnd sugar futures fell sharply on Thursday as strong selling pressure pushed prices down to close at 549.00. Futures moved decisively below the 10 DMA at 563.93, extending the correction from the recent highs near 575. Prices remain above the rising 40 and 100 DMAs at 538.43 and 498.22, respectively, meaning the broader upward structure remains intact. However, the break below 550 leaves the market vulnerable to a test of the 40 DMA.
The stochastics are falling sharply, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 5.02/30.10. %K has moved deep into oversold territory, signalling strong bearish momentum, although the severity of the decline leaves scope for a technical rebound. The MACD diff has converged on the downside and turned negative at -1.7428, with the MACD line at 9.5284 below the signal line at 11.2712. This bearish crossover confirms the deterioration in buying momentum and strengthens the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to remain below 550 and break through the 40 DMA at 538.43. A sustained close below this average could set the scene for a move towards 530, followed by the more significant support around 520. On the upside, deeply oversold conditions could encourage a rebound, but futures need to recover above 550 before retesting the 10 DMA at 563.93. A close above this average would ease the immediate bearish pressure, while a break above 575 would be required to restore the stronger bullish outlook.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged lower on Thursday as selling pressure saw prices close at 297.45 after the market struggled to sustain gains above 300. Futures nevertheless remained above the 10 DMA at 291.88, the 40 DMA at 287.82 and the 100 DMA at 294.83. The close above all three averages keeps the short-term recovery intact, although the 40 DMA remains below the 100 DMA and resistance around 300 continues to prevent a more decisive bullish shift.
The stochastics remain elevated, but %K has crossed below %D at 75.00/81.37. This bearish crossover from overbought territory signals fading buying momentum and suggests that futures could struggle to extend the recovery immediately. Conversely, the MACD diff is positive at 2.65, with the MACD line at 2.49 above the signal line at -0.16. The MACD line has also moved above zero, confirming an improvement in the underlying momentum despite the weaker stochastic signal.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above the 100 DMA at 294.83 and break through resistance at 300. A sustained close above 300 could set the scene for a move towards 310, followed by the more substantial resistance around 320. On the downside, a break below the 100 DMA could trigger a test of the 10 DMA at 291.88 and the 40 DMA at 287.82. A close below this moving-average support area would weaken the recent recovery and bring 280 back into focus.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Lnd coffee futures fell sharply on Thursday as sustained selling pressure pushed prices down to close at 3301. Futures moved decisively below the 10 DMA at 3417 and the 40 DMA at 3428, while remaining well beneath the 100 DMA at 3587. The move below the recent support around 3350 has strengthened the bearish moving-average structure and returned the market towards the September lows around 3200–3250.
The stochastics are falling in oversold territory, with %K/%D at 16.93/19.56. %K remains below %D, signalling continued appetite for lower prices, although the increasingly stretched reading leaves scope for a technical rebound. The MACD diff has converged on the downside and turned negative at -6.28, with the MACD line at -25.10 below the signal line at -18.82. This bearish crossover confirms growing selling pressure and supports the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below 3300 and then take out support around 3250. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a test of 3200, with a deeper break exposing the March support area near 3150. On the upside, oversold conditions could encourage a rebound, but futures need to recover above 3350 before testing the 10 and 40 DMAs at 3417 and 3428. A close above this moving-average resistance would ease the immediate bearish pressure, while the 100 DMA at 3587 would need to be broken to confirm a more sustained recovery.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures fell sharply on Thursday as strong selling pressure saw prices close at 5686. Futures broke below the 10 DMA at 5832 and the 40 DMA at 5891, reversing the recent attempt to recover above 5900 and weakening the short-term structure. The market remains above the rising 100 DMA at 5522, which is now the critical support protecting the broader recovery. The close between the declining short-term averages and the rising 100 DMA leaves futures vulnerable unless buying interest returns around current levels.
The stochastics are falling sharply, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 5.57/45.31. %K has moved deep into oversold territory, signalling pronounced bearish momentum, although the speed of the decline leaves the market increasingly vulnerable to a technical rebound. The MACD diff remains positive at 10.22, with the MACD line at 4.18 above the signal line at -6.04. However, the positive differential is narrowing and is yet to confirm Thursday’s bearish price move, leaving the indicators mixed.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below support around 5600 and then take out the 100 DMA at 5522. A sustained close below this average could set the scene for a move towards 5400, followed by the more substantial support around 5200. On the upside, oversold conditions could encourage a rebound, but futures need to recover above the 10 DMA at 5832 and then the 40 DMA at 5891 to ease the immediate bearish pressure. A sustained close above 5900 could trigger another test of the psychological resistance at 6000.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Lnd cocoa futures fell sharply on Thursday as renewed selling pressure pushed prices down to close at 4296. Futures moved decisively below the 10 DMA at 4415 and the 40 DMA at 4390, reversing the recent consolidation above these averages and weakening the short-term technical structure. Prices remain above the rising 100 DMA at 4099, preserving the broader recovery for now, but the break below 4300 leaves the market exposed to further weakness towards longer-term support.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging sharply on the downside at 6.01/40.30. %K has moved deep into oversold territory, signalling strong bearish momentum but also showing that the decline is becoming increasingly stretched. The MACD diff has converged on the downside and turned negative at -2.84, with the MACD line at 20.85 below the signal line at 23.69. This bearish crossover confirms the deterioration in buying momentum and strengthens the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to remain below 4300 and break through support around 4200. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a test of the 100 DMA at 4099, followed by the psychological support at 4000. A break below the 100 DMA would represent a more significant deterioration in the longer-term structure. On the upside, deeply oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound, but futures need to recover above the 40 and 10 DMAs at 4390 and 4415, respectively, to ease the immediate selling pressure. A close above this area could prompt another test of 4500.
