NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged higher on Friday as buying interest at lower levels saw prices close at 19.64. Futures remained below the 10 DMA at 19.93 after the recent rejection from above 20.00, but continued to trade above the rising 40 DMA at 19.24 and the 100 DMA at 17.25. The broader upward structure therefore remains intact, although the failure to recover the 10 DMA leaves the immediate outlook under pressure.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D at 33.33/35.09 and %K below %D, signalling continued bearish momentum as both lines approach oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative and diverging at -0.0658, with the MACD line at 0.2820 below the signal line at 0.3478, confirming the loss of buying pressure and supporting a weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below Friday’s support around 19.50 and then take out the 40 DMA at 19.24. A sustained close below this average could set the scene for a move through 19.00 and towards 18.50. On the upside, futures need to regain the 10 DMA at 19.93 and close above 20.00 to ease the immediate bearish pressure. A break above the recent highs around 20.30 would be required to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Lnd sugar futures edged higher on Friday as buying interest emerged following Thursday’s sharp sell-off, allowing prices to close at 550.20. Futures nevertheless remained well below the 10 DMA at 563.45, confirming that the recent correction from the highs around 575 remains in place. Prices continue to trade above the rising 40 and 100 DMAs at 538.96 and 499.29, respectively, preserving the broader bullish structure for now.
The stochastics are falling sharply in oversold territory, with %K/%D at 11.40/18.63. %K remains below %D, signalling continued appetite for lower prices, although the deeply oversold readings suggest that the decline is becoming stretched. The MACD diff is negative and diverging at -2.4671, with the MACD line at 8.1873 below the signal line at 10.6544, confirming growing selling pressure and supporting the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below Friday’s support around 550 and then take out the 40 DMA at 538.96. A sustained close below this average could set the scene for a move towards 530, followed by the more significant support around 520. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support at 550 could encourage a technical rebound, but futures need to recover above the 10 DMA at 563.45 to ease the immediate bearish pressure. A close above 570 would strengthen the recovery, while a break above 575 would be required to restore the bullish outlook.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged lower on Friday as selling pressure saw prices close at 293.40. Futures settled marginally above the 10 DMA at 293.23 but below the 100 DMA at 295.24, leaving prices caught between immediate support and resistance. The market remains above the 40 DMA at 287.42, preserving the recent recovery from the September low, although the failure to sustain the move above 300 has weakened the short-term outlook.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 60.54/74.70, signalling fading buying momentum after the indicators recently approached overbought territory. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive at 2.02, with the MACD line at 2.37 above the signal line at 0.34, suggesting that the underlying momentum remains constructive. However, the histogram is beginning to flatten, indicating that buying pressure is no longer strengthening decisively.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the 10 DMA at 293.23 and then take out support around 290. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a test of the 40 DMA at 287.42, followed by 280 if this support fails. On the upside, futures need to recover above the 100 DMA at 295.24 before retesting 300. A sustained close above 300 would be required to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices and target 310.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Lnd coffee futures fell sharply on Friday as sustained selling pressure pushed prices down to close at 3242. Futures remained firmly below the 10 DMA at 3396 and the 40 DMA at 3420, while the 100 DMA at 3587 continues to provide more substantial resistance. The break below 3300 has extended the sequence of lower highs and lower lows and returned the market towards the September support area around 3200.
The stochastics are falling deeply into oversold territory, with %K/%D at 3.57/13.36. %K remains below %D, signalling pronounced bearish momentum, although the extremely low reading suggests that the decline is becoming stretched and could encourage a technical rebound. The MACD diff is negative and diverging at -13.98, with the MACD line at -36.30 below the signal line at -22.32, confirming growing selling pressure and supporting the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to remain below 3250 and break through the psychological support at 3200. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 3150 and then 3100. On the upside, deeply oversold conditions could trigger a rebound, but futures first need to recover above 3300 before testing the 10 DMA at 3396 and the 40 DMA at 3420. A close above this moving-average resistance area would be needed to ease the immediate bearish pressure, while the 100 DMA at 3587 remains the key level for a more sustained recovery.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower on Friday as selling pressure saw prices close at 5691. Futures remained below the 10 DMA at 5823 and the 40 DMA at 5879, maintaining the weaker short-term structure following the rejection of prices around 6000. The rising 100 DMA at 5537 remains below the market and is the key support protecting the broader recovery. Price action has formed a sequence of lower highs since August, while the latest move towards 5700 leaves futures vulnerable to another test of longer-term support.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 12.38/28.64. %K has moved into oversold territory, signalling strong bearish momentum, although the stretched reading could encourage a technical rebound. The MACD diff remains marginally positive at 0.16, with the MACD line at -5.84 just above the signal line at -6.00. The near-convergence of the lines suggests that the positive differential could turn negative, which would confirm the deterioration in price momentum.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below support around 5650–5600 and then take out the 100 DMA at 5537. A sustained close below this average could set the scene for a move towards 5400, followed by the more significant support around 5200. On the upside, oversold conditions could trigger a recovery, but futures need to regain the 10 DMA at 5823 and then the 40 DMA at 5879 to ease the immediate bearish pressure. A close above 5900 could encourage another test of 6000.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Lnd cocoa futures edged lower on Friday as continued selling pressure saw prices close at 4311. Futures remained below the 10 DMA at 4407 and the 40 DMA at 4386, confirming the deterioration in the short-term technical structure after the market failed to sustain its recent recovery towards 4500. Prices remain above the rising 100 DMA at 4112, preserving the broader recovery for now, but the sequence of lower closes leaves the market exposed to further weakness.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 14.10/26.78. %K has moved into oversold territory, signalling continued bearish momentum but also indicating that the decline is becoming stretched. The MACD diff is negative and diverging at -8.66, with the MACD line at 12.86 below the signal line at 21.52, confirming growing selling pressure and supporting the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below 4300 and then take out support around 4200. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a test of the 100 DMA at 4112, followed by the psychological support at 4000. A break below the 100 DMA would represent a more significant deterioration in the broader technical structure. On the upside, oversold conditions could encourage a rebound, but futures need to recover above the 40 DMA at 4386 and the 10 DMA at 4407 to ease the immediate selling pressure. A sustained close above these averages could trigger another test of 4500.
