EUR / USD
EUR/USD faces mounting pressure as recent French inflation data, showing the lowest levels since December 2020, strengthens the case for ECB rate cuts and widens the policy divergence with the Federal Reserve. Despite reaching highs near 1.14, the pair experienced significant selling pressure, resulting in a 0.49% decline during European trading hours. The currency pair maintains a bullish market structure, trading above both the 50-day SMA at 1.1176 and the 200-day SMA at 1.08, though immediate support rests at the 20-day moving average of 1.1270.
President Trump's decision to delay EU tariffs until July 9 has temporarily eased trade tensions, contributing to improved US consumer confidence and providing some stability to the currency pair. However, the dollar faces persistent challenges from deficit concerns and fiscal uncertainties following recent tax legislation.
The technical outlook suggests potential for further upside if buyers can defend the 20-day moving average and break above 1.14.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY jumped higher as the Ministry of Finance has initiated consultations with primary dealers and market participants about potentially reducing the issuance of super-long-term bonds (20-, 30-, and 40-year maturities). This move aims to stabilise the bond market, which has experienced heightened volatility and surging borrowing costs.
Japan's concerning debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 260% poses significant risks to the yen's stability, particularly as the nation confronts demographic challenges and escalating social costs. These developments reinforce the view that the BOJ is likely to proceed cautiously, with any policy adjustments being gradual and closely tied to incoming data.
The currency pair climbed from 142.7 to 144.3, with peak activity during European trading hours reaching approximately 144.4. The technical outlook suggests the potential for further upside movement if the pair maintains its position above 144.3, with key resistance levels at 144.8 and 146.3, though the 200-day moving average at 150.7 remains a distant ceiling.
GBP / USD
GBP/USD maintained a strong technical position despite yesterday's weakness, trading above all major moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at 1.31 serving as a robust support level. Recent UK retail sales data showing a 1.2% increase in April, coupled with persistent inflation concerns, have provided fundamental support for sterling's strength against the dollar.
The Bank of England's hawkish stance on monetary policy, reflected in just a 15% market-predicted chance of a June rate cut, continues to underpin the pound's resilience. The positive interest rate differential between UK and US bonds, with UK 10-year gilt yields exceeding US Treasury yields by 23 basis points, offers additional support for the currency pair.
Despite a recent modest decline to 1.351, technical indicators remain bullish, with an RSI of 62 suggesting continued upward momentum. While commercial traders have increased hedging activities, indicating some caution, the pair could target the recent peak of 1.359 if buyers maintain support at the 20-day SMA.
Economic Calendar
