EUR / USD
The EUR/USD outlook appears mixed with a slight bearish bias in the near term. The latest US PPI showed a significant jump to 0.9% MoM in July, marking the highest reading in three years and suggesting persistent inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs. The Federal Reserve faces a challenging balancing act between addressing inflation above its 2% target and responding to signs of labour market softening. Markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, though Powell's upcoming Jackson Hole speech will be crucial for rate guidance.
Meanwhile, the ECB appears to be near the end of its hiking cycle, with Eurozone CPI expected to remain stable at 2% next week. Institutional positioning shows growing caution, with the dollar's recent weakness potentially vulnerable to reversal if Powell maintains a hawkish stance at Jackson Hole. The currency pair's direction in the coming weeks will likely hinge on whether markets interpret economic data as supporting the Fed's "higher for longer" message or reinforcing expectations for imminent rate cuts.
USD / JPY
The Japanese economy demonstrated resilience in Q2 2025 with 0.3% growth despite US tariffs, though significant challenges loom ahead for the USD/JPY relationship. The Bank of Japan faces mounting pressure to address inflation, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent explicitly stating they are "behind the curve" and suggesting rate hikes are imminent. Japanese automakers are grappling with substantial US tariffs of 27.5% on vehicles, though a recent trade deal will eventually reduce these to 15%, potentially easing some pressure on Japan's crucial export sector.
The labour market dynamics and inflation concerns have created division among monetary policymakers globally, with markets closely watching the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium for signals on policy direction. The Japanese economy's export-dependent nature makes it particularly vulnerable to US trade policies, with Toyota projecting a $9.5 billion impact from tariffs this year.
The Bank of Japan's potential shift toward monetary tightening, coupled with the US Federal Reserve's contemplation of rate cuts, could strengthen the yen's position in the near to medium term.
GBP / USD
Despite pound's relative resilience to the dollar, the UK economy faces growing headwinds, with banks forecasting weak GDP growth of just 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026. This sluggish growth is expected to undermine government revenue and likely necessitate tax increases in the upcoming Autumn budget.
Persistent inflation remains a key concern, with UK CPI data showing core prices rising at 3.1% annually, well above the Bank of England's target. The Fed's upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and potential September rate cut are creating uncertainty around monetary policy divergence between the US and UK. Recent producer price inflation data from the US came in significantly higher than expected at 3.3% YoY, suggesting tariff-related price pressures may delay Fed easing.
Market sentiment appears to be shifting toward a more cautious stance on sterling, given the combination of weak growth prospects, fiscal challenges, and global trade tensions.
Economic Calendar
