EUR / USD
EUR/USD retains a constructive tone as policy divergence begins to tilt less decisively in favour of the dollar. With the ECB signalling a steady rate path while the Federal Reserve prepares for eventual easing through 2026, relative policy expectations should offer the euro some support in the weeks ahead.
Technically, the pair remains well-anchored above the 200-day moving average near 1.15, and momentum indicators continue to improve. Growth differentials are also slowly shifting: the euro area is expected to accelerate through 2025 while US growth moderates, reducing the macro headwind that has weighed on the single currency this year.
Looking ahead, the focus turns to whether EUR/USD can sustain gains above 1.167; a breakout would open the door towards the September high around 1.187. In the near term, the broader trend should remain constructive while the pair holds above the key 1.15 support zone.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY continues to trade with an upward bias as the yield gap between the US and Japan remains wide, even after the BoJ’s historic shift to a 0.5% policy rate. With the Federal Reserve expected to remain on hold before easing later next year, the rate differential continues to favour dollar strength.
The pair is now approaching the 155–160 zone, where authorities have previously shown intervention sensitivity. Recent rhetoric from Japanese officials signals discomfort with rapid moves, although meaningful action is unlikely unless price action becomes disorderly. Technically, support at the 20-day moving average (153.47) and the 30-day VWAP (152.67) suggests the uptrend remains intact.
In the weeks ahead, carry demand and the ongoing unwind of long-yen positions should keep USD/JPY supported, barring a clear shift in BoJ guidance or a sharp decline in US yields.
GBP / USD
GBP/USD remains vulnerable after the UK economy delivered another soft quarter, with Q3 GDP rising only 0.1% versus the expected 0.2%. The government’s decision to scrap planned income-tax increases has raised fresh concerns around fiscal credibility, adding to the pressure on sterling at a time when the data flow continues to deteriorate.
The pair remains capped below its key moving averages, with resistance at 1.32 and 1.33 limiting any near-term rallies. Persistent core inflation at 4.6% complicates the Bank of England’s reaction function, but markets continue to bring forward expectations of policy easing as growth momentum weakens.
Looking forward, the December BoE meeting will be a critical catalyst. A sustained break above 1.32 could allow a test of 1.33, but failure to hold recent lows risks a return towards the November trough near 1.30, particularly if UK data continue to disappoint relative to the US.
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