EUR / USD
EUR/USD posted modest weakness, with price action concentrated around the 1.1630 level where multiple technical indicators converge, including the 100-day and 50-day MAs. Technical analysis suggests that momentum remains neutral with an RSI of 55.
Yesterday’s release of the delayed JOLTS data showed that job openings edged slightly higher in October, indicating that labour demand remains resilient despite the market’s downward bias. The increase is modest and does not alter the near-term policy outlook. We continue to expect a 25bps cut today, with Powell’s communication taking centre stage. While the cut itself is fully priced in, we anticipate a much less dovish tone regarding the early months of 2026, as the Fed seeks to reassert a data-dependent stance after an extended period of disrupted economic releases.
Today’s Fed decision is widely expected to deliver a 25bps cut, but the real focus will be on Powell’s guidance. We anticipate he will emphasise the need to return to a genuinely data-dependent framework, a message that should steer markets away from assuming further near-term easing. As a result, we expect rate cuts projected for early 2026 to be largely priced out, with investors shifting their attention to the labour market scheduled for release next week.
This recalibration could lift the dollar and push yields modestly higher, creating a more challenging backdrop for EUR/USD in the immediate aftermath of the meeting.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY rallied, driven primarily by the significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan, with the currency reaching the 157 mark. Technical analysis reveals a robust bullish trend, with the pair trading comfortably above the trend support, suggesting strong underlying momentum in the dollar's favour against the yen.
The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to policy normalisation, despite Governor Ueda's acknowledgment of rapid rises in long-term interest rates, continues to pressure the yen, while structural challenges, including Japan's massive 230% debt-to-GDP ratio, further compound the currency's weakness. The recent magnitude-7.5 earthquake in northeast Japan and downward GDP revisions have introduced additional complications to the BOJ's normalization timeline, potentially delaying any significant policy shifts that could support the yen. Forward swaps markets have reduced their expectations for a hike next week from 130% to 88% as a result.
The recent reduction in short yen positions by traders suggests growing caution ahead of critical central bank decisions. We expect the bias to appear bullish for the pair, especially with a focus on the Fed’s forward guidance decisions. However, the upside remains contingent on the BOJ’s decision regarding potential currency intervention should those risks rise again.
GBP / USD
The GBP/USD edged lower, as resistance in the form of multiple moving averages continues to cap the upside, prompting the pair to decline to 1.3300. Despite the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut, there are growing expectations for a more hawkish Fed versus the BOE in 2026, which could widen the interest rate differential between the US and UK, creating opportunities for sterling depreciation against the dollar in the longer term.
The Bank of England's upcoming meeting on December 18 will be pivotal, with markets pricing in a high probability of a rate cut. However, the central bank's measured approach to policy easing, combined with improving real returns on pound-denominated assets, suggests continued stability for the currency pair in the near term.
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