EUR / USD
EUR/USD has demonstrated significant strength, rallying approximately 2.8% over the past week to reach 1.1888, its highest level in five months, driven by a convergence of technical momentum and dollar weakness. The dollar faces considerable bearish pressure stemming from broad-based concerns about US fiscal credibility and central bank independence, which have prompted substantial capital reallocation away from dollar-denominated assets. Market positioning heavily favours USD weakness, with commitment-of-traders data showing net bearish dollar positioning at-3.64%.
We believe that this rally does not align with each country’s domestic performance. The eurozone’s recent consumer price data significantly undershooting forecasts, and composite PMI readings showed manufacturing still in contractionary territory. Meanwhile, the US macro outlook reflects projects resilient near-term growth prospects with underlying inflation risks that could undermine the Federal Reserve's cutting path. Inflation remains elevated at 2.7% YoY with core inflation at 2.6%, both above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, keeping the central bank’s path constrained in the medium term.
This domestic divergence suggests that the recent strength appears more technical and could be short-lasting. Indeed, the daily RSI has risen to 71, indicating overbought conditions. Moreover, resistance at 1.1919, a September high, is now emerging as a key threshold. We expect that these overbought readings could trigger profit-taking back toward the 1.1700 support zone, where multiple moving averages converge.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY has experienced a sharp 2.1% decline over the past three days, falling from approximately 158 to 155, driven by technical breakdowns. This aggressive selloff, characterised by high institutional participation as the price breached the 156 level. The New York Federal Reserve's recent rate checks with major financial institutions signal rare coordinated intervention preparedness between the United States and Japan, a development that has likely contributed to the rapid unwinding of substantial short yen positions that had accumulated near the psychologically significant 160 level.
The technical picture has deteriorated significantly, with price decisively breaking below the 50-day and 20-day moving averages clustered around 157.30 and 156.60, respectively, while RSI has collapsed to oversold territory near 36. Looking ahead, the 100-day moving average at 153.70 represents the next major support level, while the broken moving average cluster between now serves as overhead resistance.
The potential for coordinated intervention constrains the pair’s upside. However, we believe that until markets start to price in BOJ policy normalisation, the pair’s skew remains on the upside, driven by structural yen weakness. Elevated geopolitical risk premiums surrounding Japan's February snap election further complicate the outlook, suggesting prevailing downside risks for the yen.
GBP / USD
The British pound has demonstrated pronounced strength against the US dollar, advancing approximately 1% over recent sessions to reach 1.366, marking multi-month highs supported by dollar weakness. Sterling sentiment remains decidedly positive, bolstered by solid UK economic data releases that have outperformed forecasts, while the dollar has faced significant headwinds.
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has decisively surged above key levels, including the 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day simple moving averages, which are clustered around 1.34-1.35, confirming a robust bullish structure and signalling significant institutional participation around the 1.361 breakout level. However, the daily RSI has reached 70.5, signalling overbought conditions that warrant close monitoring for potential profit-taking.
The upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision represents a critical event risk, with any signals of accelerated easing likely to provide additional sterling support, while hawkish commentary could prompt dollar stabilisation and sterling retracement toward the 1.34-1.35 support zone. The pair remains highly sensitive to the interplay between US data surprises, Fed communication clarity, and UK domestic stability in the sessions ahead.
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