Aluminium Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert aluminium market insights

Our quarterly aluminium outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the aluminium futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce an aluminium price range forecast as part of the report.

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Aluminium Outlook – Q1 2025

Aluminium prices held steady in Q4 2024 despite broader metal market weakness. Prices are expected to remain rangebound, but several factors could influence short-term spikes. Supply disruptions from alumina markets, the EU’s proposed ban on Russian aluminium, and escalating US tariffs on aluminium products may create volatility on the upside. However, more clarity is needed before the markets can completely price in the impact. At the very least, these factors could support aluminium prices at around $2,450/t.

Metals

As we enter the first quarter of 2025, trade tensions heavily influence market sentiment, with Trump’s tariffs narrative shaping the overall momentum. Volatility has gripped major asset classes – including FX, bonds, and equities – as markets attempt to gauge the scale, timing, and likelihood of these tariffs being fully implemented. While Chinese New Year holidays traditionally bring a quieter tone to the first quarter of the year, tariff announcements - such as a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on aluminium and steel - are injecting moderate volatility into the metals complex. What can we expect in the metal markets in the first months of 2025?

Q1 2025