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Aluminium Outlook

Adobestock 309590593

Expert aluminium market insights

Our quarterly aluminium outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the aluminium futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce an aluminium price range forecast as part of the report.

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Latest

Aluminium Outlook – Q4 2026

Aluminium has moved from a conflict-driven rally into a supported range as emerging Indonesian supply and recovering Gulf output reduce immediate shortage risk. However, Gulf production remains below pre-conflict levels, energy costs are elevated and physical buffers remain thin. We expect prices to hold around $3,000/t into year-end, with limited base-case downside and renewed disruption capable of restoring the risk premium.

Metals

Our latest Quarterly Metals Report looks at the key themes shaping metals markets into year-end and early 2027. We assess the impact of geopolitical tensions, elevated energy costs, monetary policy and shifting trade flows, alongside our outlook for individual base and precious metals. The report also explores the supply, inventory and demand dynamics driving increasing divergence across the complex.
Quarterly Metals Report

Quarterly Metals Report Archive

Aluminium Outlook – Q3 2026
Aluminium Outlook – Q2 2026
Aluminium Outlook – Q1 2026
Aluminium Outlook – Q4 2025
Aluminium Outlook – Q3 2025
Aluminium Outlook – Q2 2025
Aluminium Outlook – Q1 2025
Aluminium Outlook – Q4 2024

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We execute and clear a significant proportion of the market activity on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world's largest non-ferrous metals exchange. We also provide access to the CME’s base metal futures and options contracts on its COMEX exchange, nickel contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and copper contracts on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE).

Base Metals

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