Aluminium Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert aluminium market insights

Our quarterly aluminium outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the aluminium futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce an aluminium price range forecast as part of the report.

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Aluminium Outlook – Q3 2023

Aluminium prices continued to drift lower during the quarter, as weakening global demand outlook and further tightening expectations from key central banks weighed on base metals' performance. Aluminium, being one of the most macro-responsive metals, lost momentum as a result. While the pause from the Fed should help solidify support for Q3 2023, stimulus out of China will be key in driving the overall narrative. Yunnan smelters are returning online, but rising risks around the possible repeat of drought conditions in China could cap any upside in production gains..

Metals

In the previous quarter, expectations shifted from a pause in the central bank tightening cycle to further rate increases in July and potentially later in Q4 2023. As we move away from central bank-centric rhetoric, economic growth and consumer performance will be key in driving the risk sentiment across the board. Still, China's stimulus outlook remains critical to the longer-term narrative for metals this quarter. Sentiment has been improving as signs emerged that regulators are working to follow through on the promises made at the most recent Politburo meeting. However, markets remain cautious about the scale of support, and any positive news seems short-lived. As a result, the positive stimulus is more likely to solidify support levels than boost bullish sentiment in the near term.

Q3 2023