Copper Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert copper market insights

Our quarterly copper outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the copper futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a copper price range forecast as part of the report.

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Copper Outlook – Q1 2025

Copper Prices fell in Q4 2024, closing below $9,000/t, driven by declining optimism in the Chinese economy despite earlier fiscal stimulus hopes. However, the sentiment shifted in February, as tariff threats widened the COMEX/LME arb, prompting a jump in copper prices to $9,500/t. Ongoing uncertainties, including potential US tariffs and muted demand from China, are expected to add price volatility in 2025. A moderately bullish market sentiment is expected to persist in Q1 2025 as a result.

Metals

As we enter the first quarter of 2025, trade tensions heavily influence market sentiment, with Trump’s tariffs narrative shaping the overall momentum. Volatility has gripped major asset classes – including FX, bonds, and equities – as markets attempt to gauge the scale, timing, and likelihood of these tariffs being fully implemented. While Chinese New Year holidays traditionally bring a quieter tone to the first quarter of the year, tariff announcements - such as a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on aluminium and steel - are injecting moderate volatility into the metals complex. What can we expect in the metal markets in the first months of 2025?

Q1 2025