Expert copper market insights
Our quarterly copper outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the copper futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a copper price range forecast as part of the report.
Copper Outlook – Q2 2023
Copper prices have come down from the highs of $9,500/t seen at the start of the year and while pessimism is subsiding, markets remain cautious and are waiting on the sidelines, in a wait-and-see mode. While Peru’s government says that most of the roadblocks are now over, mines are struggling with transporting copper concentrate onto seaports to be shipped and sold, and we will continue to watch out for exports out of the region. Momentum should improve closer to the end of the quarter, thanks to continued recovery from the infrastructure segment...
The rally we saw in the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, and sentiment deteriorated since, especially in early May. Strong momentum out of China is absent, but recovery out of the region is underway, with services continuing to outperform. Downstream activity improved amid traditional peak season, but buyers have mostly purchased on the dip as needed. The demand outlook continues to struggle, with end-users showing continued softness in the goods’ sales. While this should lead to further easing in the supply chain issues we have witnessed in the last couple of years, looming recessionary fears are weighing on our demand outlook. With the key central banks ending their monetary policy tightening cycle, the focus is poised to shift away from inflation-centric data to fundamentals, such as economic growth and consumer performance. The historically weaker dollar should provide robust support for metals, but with the lack of a strong incentive, we struggle to see base metals significantly higher in Q2 2023.
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