Copper Outlook

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Expert copper market insights

Our quarterly copper outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the copper futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a copper price range forecast as part of the report.

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Copper Outlook – Q4 2022

Low inventories and backwardated spreads have kept prices elevated in recent months, if withdrawn, Russian material in the LME system will accentuate the tightness. Destocking across along the value chain and reduced available material, as shown by the low inventories and higher Chinese premiums.

We expect consumption to remain on the back foot in the near term as there was no change in COVID policy from China, the U.S. and Europe will continue to slow. We expect spreads to be volatile, with the dislocated market causing squeezes until more inventory is replenished. Output in China will start to edge higher, presenting a downside to prices. The caveat is if the Fed pivot earlier than we expect, triggering dollar weakness and a rally in risk assets. However, the fundamentals are poor, and the Yuan has weakened 7.3 against the dollar…

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