Lead Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert lead market insights

Our quarterly lead outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for the lead futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a lead price range forecast as part of the report.

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Lead Outlook – Q3 2024

Despite weak fundamental indicators like low demand during the Chinese battery off-season and high LME stock levels, lead prices jumped higher in Q2. Investment funds' engagement peaked, reflecting increased market sensitivity to speculative appetite. Although Chinese primary lead production declined due to concentrate shortages and smelter maintenance, SHFE prices surged, creating import opportunities. We expect prices to remain subdued in the near term.

Metals

As we head into Q3 2024, the markets are dealing with a different reality than what was initially expected at the beginning of the year. With Biden stepping out of the US Presidential Race, all eyes are likely to stay focused on the US until November. Additionally, there is a growing case for an increasing number of interest rate cuts this year, with major banks expected to start the cutting cycle by the end of this quarter. While this should help alleviate some of the pressures felt by the commodity space, China's muted economic performance is weighing on the base metals’ narrative. From September onward, we expect macroeconomic factors to relieve some of the pressures on the commodity market, leading to a modest increase in the latter part of Q3. We expect Q4 to bring greater market volatility.

Q3 2024