Palladium Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert palladium market insights

Our quarterly palladium outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for palladium is analysed. Our research team produce palladium price range forecasts as part of the report.

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Palladium Outlook – Q1 2025

Palladium remained under pressure in 2024, trading between $850–1,000/oz, as rising BEV and PHEV sales, especially in China, reduced autocatalyst demand. In Q1 2025, we expect prices to stay subdued due to structural demand declines and steady supply from Russia’s Nornickel. While potential supply disruptions could create short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains bearish, with downside risks outweighing upside potential.

Metals

As we enter the first quarter of 2025, trade tensions heavily influence market sentiment, with Trump’s tariffs narrative shaping the overall momentum. Volatility has gripped major asset classes – including FX, bonds, and equities – as markets attempt to gauge the scale, timing, and likelihood of these tariffs being fully implemented. While Chinese New Year holidays traditionally bring a quieter tone to the first quarter of the year, tariff announcements - such as a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on aluminium and steel - are injecting moderate volatility into the metals complex. What can we expect in the metal markets in the first months of 2025?

Q1 2025