Expert palladium market insights
Our quarterly palladium outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for palladium is analysed. Our research team produce palladium price range forecasts as part of the report.
Palladium Outlook – Q4 2022
Palladium managed to gain marginal ground during the quarter, as global supply chains easing meant that car sales improved in the recent moths. While we expect the vehicle sales to continue to improve slightly month-on-month, as we move into 2023, we expect demand to soften and decelerate. In our opinion, buyers will shift to smaller, more efficient vehicles, which, coupled with improved supply conditions, could create a downside for palladium prices...
The macroeconomic outlook is deteriorating, and in our view, Europe and the UK are in recession already, and the US will be 6 months behind. Higher interest rates, in conjunction with elevated energy and electricity prices, are squeezing households’ disposable income, and new mortgage rates are considerably higher and are now a fixed cost to the consumer. We expect end-user demand to decline, and this will have an impact across the whole supply-chain; although material availability is poor for metals with bonded and exchange warehouses low in stock, this will lead to a dislocated market and volatile price action in spreads, while the macro impacts the flat price. The 20th Party Congress has ended, and their COVID policy is here to stay. As a result, sentiment in China has declined, and if the output of refined materials rises, this will put further pressure on prices. The Fed has increased the rates by 75bps with 50bps to come, but investors are looking at where they pivot, and any dovish language will cause a selloff in the dollar, giving rise to metals prices. If Chinese demand returns and the dollar weakens, this could present significant volatility and price rises, compounded inflationary pressures.
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