Expert tin market insights
Our quarterly tin outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for the tin futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a tin price range forecast as part of the report.
Tin Outlook – Q2 2023
Tin prices were better supported than the rest of the complex, given the news of Myanmar shutting down operations. This, coupled with the ban on tin ingot from Indonesia is set to weigh on mined output in summer months, and we do not expect participants to find replacement fast enough or at a sufficient scale to offset losses from key producers. As a result, China is poised to front-load on shipments ahead of the ban. For Q2'23, tin outlook are delicately balanced between fragile demand, especially from soldering and semiconductor perspective, and stuttering supply...
The rally we saw in the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, and sentiment deteriorated since, especially in early May. Strong momentum out of China is absent, but recovery out of the region is underway, with services continuing to outperform. Downstream activity improved amid traditional peak season, but buyers have mostly purchased on the dip as needed. The demand outlook continues to struggle, with end-users showing continued softness in the goods’ sales. While this should lead to further easing in the supply chain issues we have witnessed in the last couple of years, looming recessionary fears are weighing on our demand outlook. With the key central banks ending their monetary policy tightening cycle, the focus is poised to shift away from inflation-centric data to fundamentals, such as economic growth and consumer performance. The historically weaker dollar should provide robust support for metals, but with the lack of a strong incentive, we struggle to see base metals significantly higher in Q2 2023.
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