Tin Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert tin market insights

Our quarterly tin outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for the tin futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a tin price range forecast as part of the report.

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Tin Outlook – Q4 2023

Tin prices weakened in August, as Myanmar ban did not translate into immediate fundamental market tightness. Tin ore supply will be ample in the near term due to a surge in Chinese tin ore imports from Myanmar ahead of the ban implementation, and refined tin output is declining. At the same time, poor tin demand has eased some of the supply pressure, and we expect tin prices will be stuck in a fine balance of fundamental supply tightness and amoebic demand picture. This should keep tin prices steady in Q4 2023.

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The global economy performed better than expected so far in 2023, but concerns about a cold winter, rising oil prices, high borrowing costs, and China's economic slowdown are looming large. Central banks are maintaining the narrative of higher-for-longer interest rates due to persistent higher prices, which has weighed on base and precious metals' performance. Despite pledges from Beijing to support the economy, current measures are not expected to have an immediate impact on the real estate sector, which means that there is unlikely to be a large-scale property development that would increase demand for stainless steel prices in the last quarter of the year. Nonetheless, the cumulative impacts of policy support and a dovish monetary policy in China should create a solid foundation for the economy to recover in 2024. Such a transition should push the sentiment from the oversold into neutral. News out of China and the US should bring stronger bounds of volatility in base metals’ performance in Q4 2023.

Q4 2023