NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures added to this week’s recovery on Friday, settling at 17.25 after briefly testing 17.30. The close keeps prices above the 10-DMA at 16.80 and brings the contract within touching distance of the 40-DMA at 17.00, while the 100-DMA at 17.87 and the psychological 18.00 mark remain the next significant caps. Stochastics have raced into the overbought band (%K at 82.73) and are starting to roll over, hinting that the near-term upside may be running into tiredness. The MACD diff has edged into positive territory for the first time since April, indicating that the persistent bearish momentum is converging, though the underlying trend has yet to turn higher decisively. A daily close through the 40-DMA would reinforce the notion that a base has formed above the key 16.64 floor and would open the path towards 17.80-18.00. If prices slip back under 16.90, the rally would begin to look fatigued, bringing 16.64 and 16.00¢ back into view. For now, the market is trying to stabilise, but overbought oscillators underline the need for a period of consolidation before any sustained advance.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures surged on Friday, ending at 479.20. The close put the market back above both the 10-DMA at 468.10 and the 40-DMA at 469.82, signalling growing near-term upward momentum, while the 100-DMA at 495.78 and horizontal resistance at 493.80 remain the next hurdles. Stochastics have surged into overbought territory (%K at 79.9) and are beginning to flatten, hinting that the recent rally may be losing some traction as prices approach the lower edge of major resistance. In line with that, the MACD diff has turned modestly positive but is only slowly widening, suggesting that bullish momentum is improving but not yet accelerating. A daily settlement above 493.80 would confirm a break of the short-term down-trend line and could open the way towards 519.00 and 540.20. Failure to clear 493.80, however, would leave the move vulnerable to profit-taking, with support layered at 464.00 and 434.30. For the moment, the tone has shifted from bearish to neutral-positive, though overbought oscillators imply a period of consolidation is likely before any sustained push higher.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures eased modestly on Friday, finishing at 286.50 (-1.30) and printing a small red candle just beneath the 10-DMA at 289.88. That average, together with horizontal resistance at 296.00 and the stronger barrier at 314.75, continues to cap any recovery attempts, while the 40- and 100-DMAs sit well above at 331.80 and 361.63 respectively. Stochastics are lifting from deeply oversold levels (%K at 24.00) but remain below the neutral 50 line, suggesting that downside pressure is losing momentum rather than reversing outright. Consistent with that, the MACD diff is still negative, though it has begun to flatten as the histogram contracts, pointing to a tentative convergence in bearish momentum. A decisive close back above the 10-DMA would confirm that a short-term floor is forming around the recent 272.00-275.00 area and would bring 296.00 and then 314.75 into focus. Failure to hold above 280.00, however, would leave the market vulnerable to renewed weakness towards 260.00 and potentially the psychological 250.00 zone. Overall, sentiment has moved from outright bearish to neutral-to-soft, with momentum indicators hinting at further consolidation while the market tests immediate overhead resistance.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London robusta futures slipped on Friday, closing at 3216 after failing to hold an early bounce. The contract remains pinned beneath all key moving averages, with the 10-DMA at 3529 offering the first layer of resistance, followed by the 40-DMA at 4115. Friday’s close also took prices marginally under the recent reaction low at 3 241, putting the focus back on the psychological 3200 line. Stochastics are trying to stabilise but are still deep in oversold territory (%K at 13.1), indicating that downside momentum is close to exhaustion rather than gathering pace. Consistently, the MACD diff is still negative but has begun to converge as the histogram narrows, pointing to a gradual loss of bearish pressure. A rebound through the 10-DMA would confirm that a base is forming and would re-target 3338 and 3664. Conversely, sustained trade below 3200 would expose the November 2023 trough at 3000 and could trigger another bout of liquidation. Overall, although the broader trend is still soft, oversold signals and flattening momentum suggest scope for near-term consolidation while the market assesses support around the 3200 zone.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher on Friday to close at 8177. Even so, the contract remains trapped beneath a resistance band formed by the 10-DMA at 8347, the 200-DMA at 8871 and the 40-DMA at 9050. Stochastics continue to crawl out of oversold territory (%K at 20.35) but are still subdued, signalling that upside momentum is tentative. Meanwhile, the MACD diff remains deeply negative, though the histogram is contracting, showing that bearish momentum is flattening rather than accelerating. A close through the 10-DMA would strengthen the case that a base is forming between 8000 and 7800, opening the door towards 8530 and then the broader resistance cluster around 8 850-9 050. Conversely, a decisive break back beneath 8 000 would expose 7336, with little in the way of support before the 6720 zone. While the broader trend is still fragile, the combination of stabilising oscillators and a firming price floor suggests scope for further near-term consolidation as the market gauges the strength of overhead supply.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa futures were little changed on Friday, settling at 5289 and marking another close below the 10-DMA at 5506. The contract remains firmly lodged beneath the 40-DMA at 6186 and the 200-DMA at 6773, underscoring the prevailing downward bias. Stochastics are languishing near oversold levels (%K at 13.1) but have yet to turn higher, highlighting that downside pressure is moderating rather than reversing. The MACD diff stays deeply negative, though the histogram is slowly contracting, signalling that bearish momentum is flattening. Prices need to reclaim the 10-DMA to suggest that a short-term floor is emerging; such a move would bring 5506 and then the 5359/5 600 congestion band into view. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to further slippage towards 4489 if 5250 fails to hold. For now, sentiment is neutral-to-soft, with improving—but still tentative—momentum indicators hinting that consolidation could develop while traders probe the strength of underlying support.
