NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures extended gains on Friday, settling at 17.43 after briefly piercing the resistance band between the 100 DMA at 17.75 and the horizontal ceiling at 18.00. The contract continues to climb above the 10 DMA at 17.15 and the 40 DMA at 16.94, maintaining short-term positive momentum and confirming the near-term breakout from the 16.64 base. Stochastics remain firmly overbought (%K at 83.4) and are beginning to roll, suggesting that upward momentum is elevated but may soon start to fade. Meanwhile, the MACD diff has turned positive and is rising slowly (0.10), signalling that bullish pressure is still building, albeit modestly. A daily close above 18.00 would confirm a full reversal from the June lows and expose the March peak at 19.49. Conversely, failure to clear 18.00 may trigger profit-taking, with support first at 17.15 (10 DMA), followed by the breakout zone at 16.64. For now, the tone remains constructive, though overbought conditions point to a near-term pause or shallow retracement.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures edged higher on Friday, settling at 476.40 and reclaiming ground above both the 10 DMA at 474.44 and the 40 DMA at 468.43. This marks a seconds consecutive day of gains, suggesting that short-term momentum is turning more constructive. Stochastics have climbed into overbought territory (%K at 71.5) but remain upward sloping, implying that buying interest is not yet exhausted. Meanwhile, the MACD diff has pushed further into positive territory (1.39), confirming that bullish pressure is building. Immediate resistance lies at 493.80, the June high, with a break there opening a path towards the more significant cluster at 519.00. On the downside, the 464.00 breakout zone and the 40 DMA provide initial support. Overall, the tone has shifted neutral to positive, though a sustained move through 493.80 is required to fully validate the recovery phase.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY arabica futures eased on Friday, settling at 303.60 after dipping intraday to test support at the psychological 300 level. The contract held above both the 10 DMA at 294.07 and the support zone, preserving most of the recent recovery. Momentum indicators continue to improve: stochastics are advancing (%K at 76.3), and the MACD diff remains positive at 3.99, confirming a shift away from persistent bearish pressure. A firm close above horizontal resistance at 314.75 would complete a short-term base and open the way toward the 40 DMA at 323.60, followed by the more significant cap at 356.99. On the downside, 300 remains a pivotal support; a close below it would undermine the rebound and expose the June floor near 280. For now, the tone is cautiously constructive, with upside potential contingent on a sustained break above 314.75.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London robusta futures edged higher on Friday to settle at 3348, holding above the support line at 3241.00 and nearing the 10 DMA at 3411. Although the contract remains well below the 40 DMA at 3929 and the 100 DMA at 4741, the recent bounce suggests a tentative attempt at basing. Stochastics are lifting from oversold levels (%K at 34.3) and continue to rise, indicating that downside momentum is easing. The MACD diff has turned positive at 19.9, the first such occurrence in months, pointing to an emerging shift in bias. A daily close above the 10 DMA would reinforce the short-term recovery and expose resistance at 3411 and 3664. On the downside, key support remains at 3241 and the recent low at 3181. While the broader structure is still negative, the latest indicators suggest early signs of stabilisation, with more evidence needed to confirm a sustainable low.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures rebounded sharply on Friday, closing at 7121 after bouncing from the 6720 support line. While the 5.3% rally is notable, the broader trend remains decisively negative, with the contract still well below all key moving averages: the 10 DMA at 7860, the 40 DMA at 8721, and the 200 DMA at 8897. Stochastics are deeply oversold (%K at 15.0) and beginning to turn higher, suggesting that downward momentum may be slowing, though a firm reversal has yet to form. The MACD diff remains wide at -123.7 and continues to diverge from the signal line, underscoring persistent bearish pressure. A close above the 7336 level would be the first sign of stabilisation, but only a reclaiming of the 10 DMA would suggest a potential base is forming. For now, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective, with the structure still bearish and momentum signals tentatively shifting but not yet confirmed.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa futures slipped on Friday to close at 4964, marking another close below the key 5000 level and deepening the downward trend. The contract remains well beneath the 10 DMA at 5234, the 40 DMA at 5908, and the 200 DMA at 6786, with all major moving averages pointing lower, reinforcing the bearish medium-term structure. Stochastics are deeply oversold (%K at 16.2) but have yet to decisively turn higher, suggesting downside pressure may persist. Similarly, the MACD diff remains wide at -39.5 and is not yet converging, indicating that bearish momentum remains strong. Immediate support lies at the March low of 4489.87; a close below that would open the way towards 4000. To steady the tone, prices would need to retake the 5234–5359 band, though such a reversal appears unlikely without a broader momentum shift. For now, the path of least resistance remains lower.
