NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures firmed on Thursday, settling at 17.15 after rebounding from intraday weakness to post a green candle and close directly on the 10 DMA, which is now flat at the same level. The contract also remains above the 40 DMA at 16.88 and horizontal support at 16.64, maintaining a marginally constructive bias. Momentum indicators, however, are softening: stochastics have turned lower (%K at 43.2), while the MACD diff, although slightly positive at 0.0166, is flattening, suggesting that bullish momentum has stalled. A close above the 100 DMA at 17.66 is required to restore upward momentum and expose 18.00 and 19.49 above. On the downside, a break beneath 16.64 would mark a loss of near-term support and open the way toward the May lows. While the recovery trend remains technically intact, momentum signals have faded, and price action suggests the market may consolidate in the near term unless follow-through buying emerges above the 100 DMA.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures rose on Thursday, closing at 476.40 and notching a second consecutive daily gain. The contract now trades just above both the 10 DMA at 474.44 and the 40 DMA at 468.43, with the 100 DMA still higher at 492.90. This alignment keeps short-term trend signals modestly constructive. Stochastics are nearing overbought territory (%K at 71.5) but remain upward sloping, indicating that upward momentum is still developing. Meanwhile, the MACD diff has turned positive at 1.35, confirming that buying interest is beginning to build. A close above the 493.80 horizontal resistance would confirm a bullish breakout and expose 519.00 next. On the downside, support lies at 464.00, followed by the June low at 447.00. For now, the tone remains constructive, with the structure pointing to further recovery provided prices hold above the short-term averages.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY arabica futures advanced on Thursday, closing at 297.00, marking a third consecutive gain and nudging above the 10 DMA at 297.64. The contract remains capped by resistance at 314.75 and the 40 DMA at 316.78, which together define the upper boundary of the current range. Stochastics are firming into the mid-range (%K at 54.5), and the MACD diff is positive at 2.44, signalling that short-term momentum is improving, albeit gradually. A decisive close above 314.75 is still needed to confirm a short-term base and shift the tone more definitively towards recovery, with scope then toward 353.74. On the downside, initial support sits at 294.00, with a break below exposing 280. For now, the structure remains cautiously constructive, with early signs of a trend shift continuing to emerge, but not yet confirmed.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London robusta futures extended gains on Thursday, settling at 3349 after testing and holding above the psychological 3300 threshold. The contract has now moved above the 10 DMA at 3336 for the first time in over a month, hinting at the early stages of a potential base formation. Stochastics continue to firm from oversold territory (%K at 33.3), while the MACD diff has flipped positive at 26.1, its highest level in months, reinforcing a growing bullish tone. However, the structure remains fragile beneath the 40 DMA at 3793 and the 100 DMA at 4657, meaning the broader trend is still negative. A daily close above 3411 would confirm a short-term reversal and open the path toward 3664 and 3929. Support now lies at 3241, followed by the recent low near 3180. The outlook is cautiously constructive, with early momentum favouring further upside so long as support holds.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures fell back on Thursday to settle at 7476, stalling just beneath the 10 DMA at 7600 and retreating from recent highs. The contract remains deeply embedded in a broader downtrend, with all major moving averages (the 40 DMA at 8511 and the 200 DMA at 8927) descending. Stochastics are stabilising in the low-mid range (%K at 42.4), but are beginning to turn lower again, suggesting fading follow-through from last week's bounce. Meanwhile, the MACD diff remains negative at -19.6 and has yet to cross higher, indicating that bearish momentum is softening but not yet neutral. A close above 7600 is needed to maintain the recovery tone and keep the focus on 7860 and 8511 above. Failure to hold the 7336 level would risk a return toward the July low at 6720. For now, the structure remains vulnerable to further downside without a clearer momentum shift.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa futures softened by on Thursday, closing at 5197 and retreating after an intraday failure near the 5359 resistance line. Despite the red candle, the contract remains above the 10 DMA at 5154, sustaining a fragile recovery tone. Stochastics are rising steadily (%K at 58.2), while the MACD diff has improved to +29.3, confirming that bearish momentum has given way to stabilisation. Still, the contract remains well below the 40 DMA at 5787 and the 200 DMA at 6801, keeping the broader trend bearish. A close above 5359 would be needed to build confidence in a sustained recovery, with scope then toward 5787. On the downside, the 5000 level and 4489.87 March low offer the next layers of support. For now, indicators suggest improving momentum, but further confirmation is required to shift the broader trend bias.
