1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Sugar settled lower, closing at 16.33, posting a strong red candle that pushed through the 10 and 40 DMA cluster near 16.9–17.0 and tested support at 16.64. The stochastics have slipped further into oversold, with %K at 12.34 below %D at 21.98, reinforcing weakening momentum. The MACD remains below the signal line and is diverging lower, confirming the bearish bias. With price action breaking beneath short-term trend support and volume elevated, the market looks vulnerable to further downside, with 16.00 as the next key level. Only a recovery back above 17.00 would ease immediate pressure.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

London sugar fell to 462.30, closing below both the 10 DMA (476.16) and the 40 DMA (470.62). The rejection of the 493.80 resistance level has left the market vulnerable, with immediate support now at 464.00. Stochastics weakened, %K at 31.59 against %D at 52.82, confirming downward momentum. MACD slipped negative, at 1.11 versus the signal line at 2.37, pointing to renewed bearish divergence. A sustained break under 464.00 could expose 434.30, while only recovery above the 100 DMA (474.85) would stabilise the tone.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Coffee closed at 374.40, posting a modest green candle after a recent correction from the late-August highs. The market continues to hold above the 100 DMA at 339.44, which has become near-term trend support. Stochastics are softening, with %K at 68.5 slipping beneath %D at 77.8, indicating loss of upward momentum. The MACD remains positive but its histogram has flattened, pointing to reduced upside drive. Resistance at 381.40 capped gains again, and until that level is decisively cleared, upside looks contained. A break below the 10 DMA at 376.07 could trigger a deeper pullback towards 350.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

London coffee settled at 4414, pulling back from recent highs and closing below the 10 DMA (4626) though still above the 100 DMA (4249). The rejection of 4664 leaves the contract consolidating within a 4338–4664 band. Stochastics eased from overbought, %K at 41.17 versus %D at 62.66, signalling waning upside momentum. MACD remains positive at 257.66 but has begun to converge with its signal, highlighting slowing bullish strength. A hold above 4338 would keep the medium-term recovery intact, though only a close back through 4664 would reignite upward momentum.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Cocoa extended its decline, closing at 7399 with a strong red candle. Prices are now consolidating just above the 7336 support zone, having lost ground from mid-August levels. The 10 DMA at 7705 and 40 DMA at 7805 are now reinforcing overhead resistance. Stochastics remain weak, with %K at 22.7 below %D at 26.9, still pointing down and close to oversold. The MACD is diverging negatively, with the histogram expanding lower, confirming bearish momentum. If 7336 fails to hold, attention shifts towards 7000 and then 6720. Any recovery would need a close back above 7700 to stabilise the chart.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

London cocoa weakened to 5139, closing beneath both the 10 DMA (5299) and the 40 DMA (5348), underscoring continued downward pressure. The 200 DMA (6800) remains well above, reinforcing the broader bearish trend. Stochastics remain in oversold territory, %K at 13.14 against %D at 16.12, but show no clear sign of reversal. MACD deepened negative at -68.90 versus the signal at -41.58, confirming divergence to the downside. Support stands at 5139 then 4489, while resistance is layered at 5359. The market remains biased lower unless stochastics turn decisively higher.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.