NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar eased to 14.38, holding above the short-term 10 DMA at 14.45, while the 40 and 100 DMAs at 14.42 and 15.79 continue to cap recoveries. Price action remains subdued beneath key horizontal resistance at 15.62, where recent rallies have repeatedly faltered. The candle shows modest indecision but retains a slightly constructive short-term tone after stabilising above the recent trough. Stochastics (%K 47.81, %D 55.75) are turning lower from mid-range, indicating fading momentum.
The MACD (MACD -0.0403, Signal -0.0998, Diff 0.0595) remains negative, but the narrowing diff reflects continued convergence, suggesting downside momentum is weakening. A close back above 15.00–15.62 would be needed to re-establish upside traction, while support at 14.00 remains critical. For now, price is rangebound with near-term consolidation still the dominant theme.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar edged higher to 14.47, extending its short-term recovery from the 13.90–14.00 base. The contract remains below the 10 DMA at 14.39, 40 DMA at 14.53, and 100 DMA at 15.87, leaving the broader structure decisively bearish despite recent stabilisation. Stochastics continue to rise, with %K at 59.96 above %D at 67.09, signalling improving short-term momentum, though the reading is not yet stretched. The MACD remains negative at –0.057, but the diff is slightly positive, suggesting downside momentum is easing rather than accelerating. Initial resistance stands at 15.62, followed by the heavier technical barrier at 15.87 (100 DMA). A sustained close above these levels would be required to shift the medium-term tone. On the downside, the recent corrective low near 13.90 remains key; a break back beneath this would undermine the recovery and refocus attention on the broader downtrend. For now, sugar is stabilising, but the upside is constrained by layered overhead supply and unbroken medium-term moving averages.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee slipped to 374.85, remaining locked within a tight consolidation band beneath 393.01 and well below the October peak. The 10 and 40 DMAs are clustered at 377.12 and 378.89, offering immediate overhead resistance, while the 100 DMA at 357.59 continues to underpin the broader structure. The near-doji candle reflects ongoing indecision after repeated failures to build momentum above 380–390.
Stochastics (%K 70.16, %D 66.28) have crossed lower from high levels, signalling short-term fatigue.
The MACD (MACD -0.2853, Signal 0.4038, Diff -0.6891) is firmly negative, with the diff widening again, implying renewed pressure. A sustained break above 393.01 would be required to reassert upside bias, while a slip through 357.59 would expose 314.75. For now, the market remains capped, with bias turning marginally softer.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee retreated to 4178, slipping back toward the lower edge of its recent 4338–4170 consolidation band. Price action continues to trade below the 10 DMA at 4323, 40 DMA at 4480, and sits just beneath the 100 DMA at 4245, keeping the short-term tone fragile. The MACD remains negative at –73.53, and the diff is also negative, confirming persistent downside momentum with no clear convergence yet. Stochastics are soft, with %K at 12.06, signalling oversold conditions but not yet indicating an actionable reversal without a %K/%D cross. Initial resistance lies at 4338, followed by the heavier cap at 4664. A close above the 100 DMA would be the first technical improvement. On the downside, support is seen near 4170, with room toward 314.75 only if the market slips back into a broader corrective phase—though for now, that remains distant. London coffee is weakening within its range, and without momentum convergence, the burden of proof remains on the upside.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa recovered to 5696, pushing back above the 10 DMA at 5374, though the 40 DMA at 5838 and the long-term 200 DMA at 7755 remain intact overhead, emphasising the dominant downtrend. The longer-term descending trendline continues to weigh, but the recent bounce off the 4924 low has improved short-term structure. Stochastics (%K 76.41, %D 62.86) are rising, signalling strengthening upward momentum from mid-range. The MACD (MACD -168.27, Signal -234.75, Diff 66.48) remains negative, but the diff is positive and widening, indicating continued MACD convergence and easing downside pressure. A close above 5876–6210 would mark the first meaningful technical improvement since mid-year. Supports sit at 5374 (10 DMA) and 5200, with the rebound intact while these levels hold.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa firmed to 5455, continuing to lift off the 4924 low recorded in late November. The market remains well below its descending 10 DMA at 5287, 40 DMA at 5876, and 200 DMA at 7828, keeping the wider trend structurally bearish despite the current bounce. Stochastics are improving, with %K at 59.75 above %D at 41.89, reinforcing the short-term upward bias. The MACD is negative at –245.63, although the diff is strongly positive, showing clear MACD convergence and reduced downside momentum. Immediate resistance stands at 5876, followed by 6210 and the more meaningful barrier at 6720. These remain significant hurdles within a still-intact downtrend. Support rests at 5207, with the November low at 4924 as the critical level; failure there would reaffirm the prevailing bearish structure. Cocoa is attempting to base, but until the contract reclaims at least the 40 DMA, rallies continue to sit within a broader corrective channel.
