NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures softened on Tuesday as prices closed at 14.34, slipping below the 10 DMA at 14.46 and consolidating beneath the longer-term DMAs. The stochastics are edging lower, with %K/%D declining towards the mid-range, signalling weakening momentum. The MACD diff is negative and diverging marginally to the downside, suggesting a growing appetite for lower prices.
To confirm the bearish bias, futures need to take out support at 14.00 before targeting the November lows. Conversely, reasserting support at current levels followed by a close back above the 40 DMA at 14.49 and then 15.04 (100 DMA) would be needed to shift momentum towards the 15.62 resistance. A small-bodied candle and consolidation just beneath the short-term DMAs point to continued indecision, with indicators skewed towards near-term weakness.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged lower on Tuesday, closing at 14.34. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D drifting lower through mid-range, signalling waning buying appetite. The MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting bearish momentum may be stabilising rather than accelerating for now. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break the nearby support at 14.00, which could open a move towards the broader floor at 13.50.
On the upside, futures need to reclaim the 10 DMA at 14.46 and then the 100 DMA at 15.04, ahead of the more material resistance at 15.62, in order to shift the structure back towards neutrality. The candle found support just above 14.00, but repeated failures to sustain rallies above the short-term DMAs keeps pressure on the downside. We expect consolidation to continue with a mild bearish bias unless prices close above the 10 DMA.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures weakened on Tuesday, closing at 329.90 and extending the downside rejection from the longer-term DMAs overhead. The %K/%D is falling, and the MACD diff is positive but converging towards the signal line, suggesting a loss of upside momentum rather than outright bearish divergence at this stage.
To confirm the shift lower, futures need to take out the 314.75 level, which would open the downside towards the October lows. On the upside, bulls would need to regain the 10 DMA at 342.70 and then the 40 DMA at 354.45 before retesting 367.06 (100 DMA) to rebuild the bullish structure. The candle formed another lower close beneath the short-term DMA cluster, underscoring fragile conditions and risk of further softness if momentum fails to stabilise.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures weakened on Tuesday, closing at 3941. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside through mid-range, highlighting early signs of stabilisation following December’s lows. The MACD diff remains negative but converging, indicating that bearish momentum is softening. To confirm upside potential, futures need to take out resistance at the 10 DMA at 3956 followed by the 40 DMA at 4041 before targeting 4338.
On the downside, failure to hold above 3900 could see futures revisit the recent lows near 3800, where trend support becomes more robust. The candle structure shows tentative buying interest off the recent trough, but the broader trend remains down while prices sit under the longer-term DMAs. A break above the 40 DMA would be required to credibly challenge the medium-term trend.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures sold off sharply on Tuesday, closing at 4714 and extending the reversal from the 5441 (10 DMA) resistance area. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D descending into the oversold region, while the MACD diff is negative and diverging, indicating accelerating bearish momentum.
To confirm the bearish break, futures need to close below support at 4653 (recent low), which would trigger a test towards the longer-term descending trendline near 4500. On the upside, reclaiming the 10 DMA at 5441 and then the 40 DMA at 5698 would be required to negate the near-term bearish bias. The broad red candle and negative follow-through signal a decisive shift in sentiment, with indicators firmly aligned to the downside in the short term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures sold off sharply on Tuesday, closing at 3354. The stochastics continue to fall, with %K/%D diverging lower and approaching oversold, signalling persistent downside momentum. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, confirming strong bearish pressure. To extend the downtrend further, futures need to break the 3317 low, which would open a move towards 3200 and reinforce the longer-term bearish channel.
On the upside, the market would need to recover and close above the 10 DMA at 3852 and then the 40 DMA at 4104 to begin neutralising the downtrend. The bearish candle followed a rejection from the short-term DMAs, reinforcing the strength of overhead resistance and the continuation of the prevailing trend. We expect further weakness in the near term unless futures stabilise above current levels.
