NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar (May) settled at 13.89, extending the downside move and decisively breaking back below the 14.30 support zone.
Price action shows a sharp unwinding of the March rally, with consecutive lower closes driving the contract through both the 10 DMA (15.05) and 40 DMA (14.58), and now firmly below 14.30. This confirms the prior breakout has failed and the market has re-entered a bearish structure, with the recent move accelerating into the lower end of the range.
Momentum has turned clearly negative. The MACD diff is widening to the downside, indicating increasing bearish pressure, while stochastics have moved deep into oversold territory near 10, reflecting the speed of the sell-off. While this suggests potential for short-term stabilisation, there is no clear signal of a base forming yet.
Technically, 14.30 now acts as firm resistance, followed by the 40 DMA. On the downside, the next key level is 13.34, which represents critical horizontal support. A break below this level would open the way for a move towards the cycle lows.
NY sugar is firmly back in a bearish phase, with momentum negative and price pressing into key support, leaving the near-term bias to the downside unless the market can reclaim 14.30.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar (May) closed at 413.80, continuing to weaken after failing to hold above key resistance and confirming a broader reversal lower.
Price action shows a clear rejection from the 460 area followed by a sustained decline, with the contract now trading below both the 10 DMA (439.94) and the 40 DMA (423.36). The break below 434 has shifted the structure back to bearish, and the latest move is pushing towards the lower end of the recent range.
Momentum indicators reinforce this view. The MACD diff has turned negative and is widening, signalling building downside momentum. Stochastics have dropped sharply towards oversold levels near 10–20, indicating that while the market is stretched, there is not yet a confirmed reversal signal.
From a technical perspective, 423–434 now defines the key resistance zone, combining the 40 DMA and prior support. While below this region, rallies are likely to remain corrective. On the downside, 392.65 remains the critical support level, marking the February low and the next downside target.
Ldn sugar has re-entered a bearish trend following a failed breakout, with momentum deteriorating and price moving back towards key support, leaving the near-term outlook skewed to the downside.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee (May) settled at 295.90, stabilising marginally after recent weakness but still holding below key resistance.
Price action shows the market attempting to base above the recent lows near 280, with a modest recovery back towards the 10 DMA at 290.24 and just above the 40 DMA at 291.19. However, the broader structure remains fragile, with the contract still capped below the 314.75 resistance level and well beneath the declining 100 DMA, which continues to define the broader bearish trend.
Momentum indicators are neutralising but not yet supportive of a sustained recovery. The MACD diff is slightly negative but flattening, suggesting downside pressure is easing. Stochastics have turned higher from mid-range levels but remain below overbought territory, indicating scope for a limited recovery rather than a strong trend reversal.
Technically, holding above the 40 DMA is constructive in the very short term, but the key test remains 314.75. A break above this level would be required to shift the near-term outlook towards a more constructive bias. On the downside, failure to hold the 290–280 zone would re-expose the recent lows and reinforce the broader bearish structure.
NY coffee is in a tentative stabilisation phase within a broader downtrend, with near-term direction dependent on whether the market can reclaim resistance at 314.75.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee (May) closed at 3239, continuing to weaken and extending the broader downtrend.
Price action remains clearly bearish, with consecutive lower closes pushing the contract further below both the 10 DMA at 3353 and the 40 DMA at 3581. The market is now approaching the key 3166 support level, with no meaningful signs of a base forming. The consistent rejection from the 40 DMA in recent weeks reinforces the downward trend.
Momentum remains firmly negative. The MACD diff is widening on the downside, indicating increasing bearish momentum, while stochastics are deeply oversold near 15, reflecting the persistence of the sell-off. Although this suggests the market is stretched, there is no clear reversal signal at present.
From a technical perspective, 3350–3580 now defines the key resistance zone, with the 40 DMA acting as the primary barrier. While below this region, rallies are likely to remain corrective. On the downside, a break below 3166 would open the way for further weakness and continuation of the broader downtrend.
Ldn coffee remains in a well-defined bearish trend, with momentum negative and price pressing into key support, leaving the near-term outlook biased to the downside unless the market can reclaim the 40 DMA.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa (May) settled at 3327, extending its consolidation phase following the sharp decline earlier in the year.
Price action is stabilising just above the 3200–3000 region, with the market holding around the 10 DMA at 3277 and marginally above the 40 DMA at 3260. This suggests near-term balance, although the broader structure remains clearly bearish, with price still well below the declining 200 DMA near 5860 and beneath the long-term descending trendline.
Momentum indicators point to a loss of downside pressure but not yet a reversal. The MACD diff is positive and rising, indicating improving momentum, while stochastics are holding in mid-range near 50, reflecting consolidation rather than a directional push. This combination is consistent with a base-building phase after the aggressive sell-off.
Technically, 4345 remains the key resistance level, aligned with prior breakdown zones. While below this area, the broader trend stays negative and rallies are likely to remain corrective. On the downside, the 3000–2845 zone continues to act as key support, with the previous low at 2846 still the major downside reference.
NY cocoa is transitioning into a consolidation phase within a broader downtrend, with improving momentum suggesting stabilisation, but confirmation of a sustained recovery requires a break above 4345.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa (May) closed at 2442, continuing to consolidate after the steep decline, with price holding above recent lows.
Price action is trading just above the 10 DMA at 2420 and above the 40 DMA at 2363, indicating short-term support and a tentative base formation. However, the broader trend remains firmly bearish, with price still significantly below the 200 DMA near 4109 and contained within a longer-term descending structure.
Momentum is gradually improving. The MACD diff is positive and rising, pointing to a recovery in momentum following the prior sell-off, while stochastics are holding around mid-range levels near 45, again signalling consolidation rather than strong directional conviction.
From a technical perspective, 2600–3000 (with 4489 as the major longer-term level) defines the key resistance region, with the market needing to reclaim these areas to shift the broader outlook. On the downside, support remains at 2050, with the recent low at 2015 marking the key floor.
Ldn cocoa is stabilising above recent lows with improving momentum, but remains within a broader downtrend, with rallies likely to be capped unless the market can break decisively above the 40 DMA and reclaim higher resistance levels.
