NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures rebounded strongly on Friday, closing at 14.54, as a firm green candle showed buying interest returning after the recent slide. Even so, the contract only just reclaimed the 100 DMA at 14.53 and remains below the 40 DMA at 14.71 and the 10 DMA at 15.03, which suggests the rebound has improved the near-term tone but has not yet repaired the broader technical picture.
The stochastics are low, with %K at 14.95 below %D at 22.94, indicating that momentum remains weak despite the bounce, while the MACD diff is still negative, showing that selling pressure has eased but has not yet reversed.
To confirm that Friday’s rebound can develop into a stronger recovery, futures need to build above the 100 DMA and then retake the 40 DMA at 14.71 before challenging the 10 DMA at 15.03. A move through these levels would strengthen the case for a return towards 15.30. On the downside, failure to hold above the 100 DMA would leave the market vulnerable to renewed pressure, with a break below 14.30 bringing the April low at 13.34 back into focus. For now, the rebound looks encouraging, but futures still need to reclaim the short-term averages to confirm that the downside pressure is fading.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures also rebounded strongly on Friday, settling at 434.30, with a solid green candle and a gain of 8.90 points signalling a firmer tone after recent weakness. The close lifted futures back above the 40 DMA at 432.40, while the market continues to hold above the 100 DMA at 425.05, although prices are still capped below the 10 DMA at 437.13. This suggests that the rebound has improved the immediate structure, but resistance remains close overhead.
The stochastics are still subdued, with %K at 27.73 below %D at 32.64, pointing to only tentative improvement in momentum, while the MACD diff remains negative, indicating that the broader recovery still lacks full confirmation.
To confirm a stronger upside move, futures need to close above the 10 DMA at 437.13 and then push through the 440 area, which would open the way towards the mid-440s and potentially 450. On the downside, the 40 DMA at 432.40 is now the first level to hold, with a break back below that area exposing the 100 DMA at 425.05. For now, Friday’s move suggests the market is trying to stabilise after the recent downturn, but futures need a clear break above the short-term resistance to confirm that the rebound has more substance.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged lower on Friday, settling at 258.70, with a decline of 8.00 on the session confirming continued downside pressure. Futures remain below the 10 DMA at 263.79, the 40 DMA at 281.63 and the 100 DMA at 296.38, reinforcing that the broader bearish structure is firmly intact. The move lower keeps prices close to the key support at 255.65, and a failure to hold this level would accelerate the downtrend.
The stochastics are subdued, with %K at 25.58 just below %D at 26.29, indicating weak momentum and proximity to oversold territory without yet showing signs of a turn. The MACD diff remains negative at -0.55, suggesting that selling pressure persists and has not yet begun to ease.
To confirm continuation lower, futures need to break below the 255.65 support, which would open the way towards 250. On the upside, any recovery requires a move back above the 10 DMA at 263.79, with a push through the 40 DMA at 281.63 needed to signal a meaningful shift in momentum. For now, the structure remains weak, with prices drifting towards key support and indicators offering little evidence of stabilisation.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee futures also edged lower on Friday, closing at 3347, with a decline of 68 on the session as selling pressure continued. Futures remain below the 10 DMA at 3368 and the 40 DMA at 3382, while the 100 DMA at 3617 continues to cap the broader outlook. The failure to reclaim short‑term averages highlights persistent weakness, with prices gravitating towards the key support at 3166.
The stochastics are in the mid‑range, with %K at 36.87 marginally above %D at 36.05, suggesting that momentum is stabilising but without clear upside conviction. The MACD diff remains negative at -3.09 and is widening, indicating that selling pressure is building rather than easing.
To confirm further downside, futures need to break below the 3166 support, which would expose the 3000 level. On the upside, a recovery requires a close above the 10 and 40 DMA cluster around 3368–3382, with a move through 3500 needed to challenge the 100 DMA and ease the broader bearish pressure. For now, price action reflects ongoing weakness, with the market struggling to find a base above key support.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower on Friday, closing at 3999, with a red candle and a negative change on the session, indicating modest selling pressure after the recent stabilisation phase. Despite the softer close, futures remain above the 40 DMA at 3751 but continue to trade below the 10 DMA at 4023, suggesting that near‑term momentum remains capped while the market attempts to consolidate after the earlier downturn. Prices are still significantly below the 200 DMA at 5159, reinforcing that the broader trend remains corrective.
The stochastics are stabilising in the mid‑range, with %K at 42.49 slightly above %D at 38.83, indicating tentative improvement in momentum rather than a strong directional move. The MACD diff remains negative at around -32, although it is less pronounced than during the earlier sell‑off, suggesting that downward momentum is easing.
To confirm a stronger recovery, futures need to reclaim and close above the 10 DMA at 4023, which would open the way for a test of resistance around 4300 and then 4700. On the downside, a break back below the 40 DMA at 3751 would signal renewed weakness and expose a move towards 3000 and potentially the 2846 low. For now, price action reflects consolidation after the decline, with Friday’s move showing hesitation rather than a renewed sell‑off.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
