Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures fell sharply on Thursday as renewed selling pressure pushed prices below the short-term moving averages to close at 18.38. Futures settled below the closely aligned 10 and 40 DMAs at 18.55 and 18.52, respectively, weakening the immediate technical structure after the recent recovery failed below 19.00. The market remains comfortably above the rising 100 DMA at 16.50, preserving the broader constructive trend, but the sequence of lower highs since the August peak near 20.00 continues to weigh on the near-term outlook.

The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 32.73/54.10, signalling renewed appetite for lower prices as %K approaches oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative at -0.1055, with the MACD line at 0.1001 below the signal line at 0.2056, confirming continued selling pressure.

To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below Thursday’s low around 18.20 and then take out the psychological support at 18.00. A sustained close below this area could set the scene for a move towards 17.50, while further weakness would bring the 100 DMA at 16.50 into focus. On the upside, futures need to recover above the 18.52–18.55 DMA resistance area to ease the immediate bearish pressure. A close above these averages could trigger another test of 19.00, with a break above 19.20 needed to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices towards 19.50. 

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures weakened on Thursday as intraday selling pressure saw prices close at 521.10. Futures settled below the 40 DMA at 521.82 but remained above the 10 DMA at 517.91, leaving the market between medium-term resistance and short-term support. Prices continue to consolidate below the August highs around 540–555, although the recent ability to hold above 510 has prevented a more significant deterioration in the technical structure. The rising 100 DMA at 479.77 remains comfortably below current prices and continues to support the broader trend.

The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 70.14/58.81, signalling stronger buying momentum despite Thursday’s decline. Conversely, the MACD diff remains negative at -1.4745, with the MACD line at 1.1287 below the signal line at 2.6032. However, the differential is converging towards the upside, suggesting that the recent selling pressure is beginning to moderate.

To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to regain the 40 DMA at 521.82 and break above resistance around 525. A sustained close above this area could set the scene for a test of 530, followed by the more robust resistance around 540. On the downside, a failure to hold above the 10 DMA at 517.91 could trigger another test of support at 510. A close below this level would weaken the current stabilisation and bring the psychological support at 500 into focus, while a deeper correction could target the 100 DMA at 479.77. 

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures edged lower on Thursday as selling pressure emerged following the recent recovery, with prices closing at 279.60. Futures nevertheless remained above the 10 DMA at 274.54, preserving the immediate rebound from the September low around 260. However, the market continues to trade below the 100 DMA at 291.48 and the 40 DMA at 299.89, leaving robust resistance between 291 and 300 and maintaining the broader bearish structure.

The stochastics remain elevated, but %K has crossed below %D at 63.55/73.74, signalling that the recent buying momentum is beginning to weaken. Conversely, the MACD diff is positive at 1.48, with the MACD line at -7.56 above the signal line at -9.04, suggesting that underlying selling pressure is moderating despite both lines remaining below zero.

To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA at 274.54 and break through resistance around 280. A sustained close above this level could set the scene for a test of the 100 DMA at 291.48, followed by the psychological resistance at 300 and the 40 DMA at 299.89. Futures would need to close above this moving-average area to confirm a more meaningful improvement in the technical outlook. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA could trigger a move towards 270. A close below this support would weaken the recent recovery and bring the September low around 260 back into focus.

Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged higher on Thursday as continued buying interest saw prices close at 3403, extending the recovery from the September low around 3220. Futures settled above the 10 DMA at 3353 but remained below the 40 DMA at 3530 and the 100 DMA at 3578. The proximity of the longer-term averages creates robust resistance around 3530–3580, while the market’s continued position below both levels maintains the broader bearish structure.

The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging marginally on the upside at 62.93/61.38, signalling continued appetite for higher prices, although the narrow separation between the lines points to limited momentum. The MACD diff is positive and diverging at 13.14, with the MACD line at -57.53 above the signal line at -70.67, highlighting easing selling pressure and supporting the recovery.

To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA at 3353 and break through resistance around 3450. A sustained close above this level could set the scene for a test of 3500, followed by the 40 and 100 DMAs at 3530 and 3578, respectively. Futures need to close above this moving-average resistance area to confirm a stronger recovery and target 3600. On the downside, a failure to retain support above the 10 DMA could trigger a move back towards 3300. A close below this level would weaken the recent recovery and bring the September low around 3220–3250 back into focus.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures