NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged higher on Tuesday as tentative buying interest following Monday’s sharp sell-off saw prices close at 18.64. The market nevertheless remained well below the 10 DMA at 19.63 and the 40 DMA at 19.24, confirming a substantial deterioration in the short-term structure after the breakdown from the recent highs above 20.00. Futures remain above the rising 100 DMA at 17.33, which now provides the main support protecting the broader upward trend.
The stochastics remain in oversold territory, with %K/%D at 15.79/19.88. %K remains below %D, signalling continued bearish momentum, although the deeply oversold readings suggest that the decline is becoming stretched. The MACD diff is negative and diverging at -0.1845, with the MACD line at 0.0807 below the signal line at 0.2652, confirming growing selling pressure and supporting the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the immediate support around 18.50 and then take out 18.00. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 17.50 and the 100 DMA at 17.33. On the upside, oversold conditions could support a technical rebound, but futures first need to recover above 19.00 and then the 40 DMA at 19.24. A close above the 10 DMA at 19.63 would be required to ease the broader bearish pressure and bring 20.00 back into focus.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Lnd sugar futures edged higher on Tuesday as buying interest following the latest sharp decline saw prices close at 531.40. Futures nevertheless remained below the 40 DMA at 539.14 and substantially below the 10 DMA at 555.39, confirming a marked deterioration in the short-term structure following the rejection from the October highs. The rising 100 DMA at 501.08 remains comfortably below the market and continues to protect the broader upward trend, but the failure to recover above the 40 DMA leaves prices vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
The stochastics remain deeply oversold, although %K has crossed marginally above %D at 13.04/10.86. This tentative bullish crossover suggests that selling momentum may be beginning to stabilise, but both lines remain at depressed levels and provide limited confirmation of a sustained recovery. The MACD diff is negative and diverging at -5.0735, with the MACD line at 3.2489 below the signal line at 8.3224, highlighting strong selling pressure and maintaining the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below support around 530. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 520, followed by the more substantial support at 500 and the 100 DMA at 501.08. On the upside, the oversold stochastics could support a technical recovery, but futures need to regain the 40 DMA at 539.14 before targeting 550 and the 10 DMA at 555.39. A close above the 10 DMA would be required to confirm a more meaningful improvement in the short-term structure.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures fell sharply on Tuesday as sustained selling pressure pushed prices down to close at 281.10. Futures broke below the 10 DMA at 292.96, the 40 DMA at 285.97 and the 100 DMA at 296.00, reversing the recent recovery towards 300 and restoring a bearish moving-average structure. The break below the 40 DMA is particularly significant, with prices now testing the lower end of the recent consolidation range.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 16.46/31.04. %K has moved into oversold territory, signalling strong bearish momentum, although the low reading also suggests that the decline is becoming stretched. The MACD diff remains marginally positive at 0.0367, with the MACD line at 0.6389 just above the signal line at 0.6022. However, the near-convergence of the lines leaves the indicator vulnerable to a downside crossover, which would confirm the deterioration in price momentum.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below support at 280. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 270, followed by the September low around 260. On the upside, oversold conditions could support a technical rebound, but futures need to regain the 40 DMA at 285.97 before testing the 10 DMA at 292.96 and the 100 DMA at 296.00. A close above the 293–296 resistance area would be required to ease the broader bearish pressure and bring 300 back into focus.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Lnd coffee futures edged higher on Tuesday as limited buying interest following the recent sell-off saw prices close at 3220. Futures nevertheless remained well below the 10 DMA at 3347 and the 40 DMA at 3406, while the 100 DMA at 3586 continues to provide more substantial resistance. The market’s position below all three averages maintains the bearish structure, with prices now testing the September support area around 3200.
The stochastics are beginning to recover from deeply oversold territory, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 21.56/13.84. The upside crossover suggests that selling momentum may be starting to moderate, although both indicators remain close to oversold levels and do not yet confirm a sustained recovery. Conversely, the MACD diff is negative and diverging at -22.03, with the MACD line at -54.97 below the signal line at -32.95, highlighting growing selling pressure and maintaining the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the psychological support at 3200. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 3100, followed by the more substantial support around 3000. On the upside, the stochastic crossover could support a technical rebound, but futures first need to recover above 3250 and then 3300. A break above the 10 DMA at 3347 would ease the immediate bearish pressure, while a close above the 40 DMA at 3406 would be required to confirm a more meaningful recovery.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher on Tuesday as buying interest around the recent lows saw prices close at 5692. Despite the recovery, futures remained below the 10 DMA at 5787 and the 40 DMA at 5826, maintaining the weaker short-term structure after the market failed to sustain gains above 6000. Prices remain above the rising 100 DMA at 5568, which is now the critical support protecting the broader recovery.
The stochastics are rising from oversold territory, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 22.74/13.98. The bullish crossover suggests that selling momentum is beginning to moderate and could support a short-term rebound. However, the MACD diff is negative and diverging at -12.93, with the MACD line at -25.16 below the signal line at -12.23, confirming that broader selling pressure remains intact.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below support around 5600 and then take out the 100 DMA at 5568. A sustained close below this average could set the scene for a move towards 5400, followed by the September low around 5200. On the upside, futures need to recover above the 10 DMA at 5787 and then the 40 DMA at 5826. A close above this moving-average resistance area could trigger a test of 5900, although futures would need to break above 6000 to confirm a stronger recovery.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Lnd cocoa futures edged higher on Tuesday as buying interest at lower levels saw prices close at 4344. Futures remained below the 10 DMA at 4382 and marginally below the 40 DMA at 4359, leaving the market beneath its short-term moving averages following the recent rejection from around 4500. Prices continue to trade above the rising 100 DMA at 4140, preserving the broader constructive structure, but the failure to regain the 40 DMA leaves the immediate recovery unconfirmed.
The stochastics are rising from oversold territory, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 27.63/16.52. This bullish crossover signals easing selling momentum and improving appetite for higher prices. Conversely, the MACD diff is negative and diverging at -13.37, with the MACD line at 1.03 below the signal line at 14.40, highlighting continued selling pressure and leaving the momentum signals mixed.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to recover above the 40 DMA at 4359 and the 10 DMA at 4382. A sustained close above this resistance area could set the scene for a test of 4450 and then 4500. On the downside, a failure to regain the short-term moving averages could trigger another test of support around 4300. A close below this level would weaken the attempted recovery and bring 4200 into focus, followed by the more robust support of the 100 DMA at 4140.
