EUR / USD
EUR/USD saw downside pressures stall yesterday, holding just below the 1.1500 level. The dollar remains resilient, buoyed by robust private sector employment data showing 42,000 new jobs in October. Moreover, markets continue to discount the probability of a Fed cut in December, with expectations declining from 90% to approximately 65%. However, despite this strong economic backdrop, we believe the upside in the dollar is stalling, as domestic challenges, such as the ongoing government shutdown, weigh on sentiment.
Turning to Europe, recent economic data provides a cautiously optimistic outlook. German and French manufacturing have both recorded modest increases in factory orders and industrial output, hinting at a possible stabilisation in the Eurozone's industrial sector. Additionally, inflation figures are trending closer to the ECB's target, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will maintain current rates for now.
Technical indicators suggest a moderating bearish momentum, as evidenced by the RSI reading of 32 and price action constrained between the previous day’s lows of 1.1469 and the resistance of 1.1500. The immediate technical outlook suggests that a breakthrough above the 1.1500 resistance level could trigger a moderate bounce back; however, we caution that the appetite above 1.1670 might be limited.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY remains resilient, currently trading near the 155.00 level, which represents a critical psychological threshold and approaches intervention territory last seen in 2022 around 152.00. The substantial 3.25% interest rate differential between the US and Japan remains a primary driver of carry trades, contributing to persistent yen weakness despite mounting intervention risks.
Internal divisions within the BOJ have become increasingly apparent: while two board members advocate for rate hikes, Governor Ueda maintains a cautious stance, fuelling uncertainty over the central bank’s next move. Furthermore, the recent election of Prime Minister Takaichi, who supports an accommodative monetary policy, has prompted markets to push expectations for BOJ policy normalization further out, now targeting early 2026.
The immediate technical outlook suggests that the 155.00 level may be tested if current momentum persists, although markets are likely to exercise more caution as they approach this level due to potential intervention considerations.
GBP / USD
GBP/USD held its nerve yesterday, with support at 1.3100 remaining intact, prompting the pair to trade cautiously higher to 1.3050. While the current economic landscape suggests that the BOE is not expected to cut interest rates until Q1 2026, the longer-term weakness of the pound is compounded by domestic factors, including potential tax hikes in the upcoming UK budget and a relatively modest performance in the services sector, weighing on sterling’s longer-term sentiment. This, in combination with stronger US economic data, including robust private payrolls and services sector activity, boosted the dollar’s relative strength.
From a technical perspective, however, the downside appears to be moderating, with the RSI reading of 25.49 indicating oversold conditions, which may warrant a cautious recovery in the near term. We expect the support at 1.3000 to hold; however, the upside is likely to be limited.
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