EUR / USD
EUR/USD remains caught between competing monetary policy expectations and mixed macro signals, with price action exhibiting corrective characteristics following the December recovery phase. We see the ECB’s data-dependent stance reinforced by euro area inflation stabilising at 2% in December, which removes any near-term tightening impulse and potentially opens space for cuts should disinflation deepen. By contrast, US macro remains noisy: labour data has softened at the margin, yet December ISM Services PMI jumped to a 14-month high, complicating the Federal Reserve’s easing trajectory.
Despite earlier dollar softness, the euro has struggled to gain sustained traction, with softer-than-expected German inflation acting as a further drag via reduced conviction in ECB tightening beyond 2027. Markets are currently pricing roughly two Fed cuts in 2026 and an unchanged ECB stance, which we expect to remain a structural headwind for EUR/USD.
From an FX-reaction perspective, we expect today’s ADP Employment release to introduce near-term asymmetry. With only one 25bp Fed cut priced for H1 2026, we see the pair more sensitive to negative labour surprises than to incremental upside. A softer ADP reading would likely weigh on US yields and support EUR/USD back through the mid-1.16s, whereas a stronger print may offer limited follow-through given already-priced resilience. We expect the pair to consolidate into Friday’s NFP as positioning recalibrates around labour dynamics and the rate path.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY retains a constructive bias, supported by the still-wide yield differential despite Japanese yields pushing higher as the Bank of Japan continues its slow normalisation cycle. We expect BoJ hawkishness and fiscal expansion to continue reshaping the medium-term yen narrative, though geopolitical frictions with China and defence-related spending add complexity to the near-term path.
Technically, the intraday pullback from ~157 towards the 156.50 region reflects modest long-position trimming, though we note the structure remains orderly rather than disorderly. Immediate supports sit near 156.40 and then 155.80, with resistance at 157.75 and the July 2024 high near 162.00. We see the current consolidation phase as healthy and consistent with a market awaiting labour confirmation.
We expect ADP to matter more for USD/JPY than for other majors given duration-sensitivity and stretched positioning. A soft labour print would likely compress US-Japan yield spreads and accelerate yen gains, while an upside surprise risks muted follow-through due to intervention watch and rising JGB yields. We think the balance of risks favours tactical downside unless US labour data reasserts resilience.
GBP / USD
Sterling continues to navigate competing macro forces, with domestic growth signals softening and labour cooling, while the Federal Reserve’s dovish bias has provided intermittent relief. We see rate divergence remaining the dominant driver, with markets still expecting the Bank of England to ease more cautiously than the Fed, though this stance is vulnerable to incoming UK data.
Technically, GBP/USD price action aligns with a constructive consolidation profile. The pair recovered from sub-1.3450 towards 1.3460 intraday, with resistance clustered near 1.3465/1.3480 and initial supports at 1.3435/1.3420. We see dips as orderly for now, with momentum favouring tests of recent highs if US labour disappoints.
We expect ADP to skew risks asymmetrically bullish for GBP/USD. A softer-than-expected print would reinforce pricing for earlier Fed easing and could push the pair into the upper 1.34s or higher ahead of NFP. Conversely, an upside surprise seems unlikely to deliver durable dollar strength at this stage of the cycle, with geopolitical bid and risk sentiment more influential than marginal labour upside.
Economic Calendar
