Expert gold market insights
Our quarterly gold outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for gold is analysed. Our research team produce gold price range forecasts as part of the report.
Gold Outlook – Q4 2023
Gold prices fluctuated in Q3, finishing the quarter 2.0% lower due to hawkish statements from policymakers and the strength of the dollar limiting any upward momentum. Persistently high nominal yields continue to put downward pressure on gold, with currency risk dominating markets in recent months. However, long-term fundamentals suggest that tailwinds for precious metals are building up, and expectations of the end of the tightening cycle in November may raise the attractiveness of the precious metal.
The global economy performed better than expected so far in 2023, but concerns about a cold winter, rising oil prices, high borrowing costs, and China's economic slowdown are looming large. Central banks are maintaining the narrative of higher-for-longer interest rates due to persistent higher prices, which has weighed on base and precious metals' performance. Despite pledges from Beijing to support the economy, current measures are not expected to have an immediate impact on the real estate sector, which means that there is unlikely to be a large-scale property development that would increase demand for stainless steel prices in the last quarter of the year. Nonetheless, the cumulative impacts of policy support and a dovish monetary policy in China should create a solid foundation for the economy to recover in 2024. Such a transition should push the sentiment from the oversold into neutral. News out of China and the US should bring stronger bounds of volatility in base metals’ performance in Q4 2023.
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