Gold Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert gold market insights

Our quarterly gold outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for gold is analysed. Our research team produce gold price range forecasts as part of the report.

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Gold Outlook – Q2 2023

Gold performed well in Q1, gaining 9%, as financial and economic uncertainty acted as a tailwind for the yellow metal. The weaker dollar, in conjunction with growing expectations of the final rounds of central banks’ interest rate hikes have increased the attractiveness of the precious metal. The decline in yields is likely to further benefit gold, and while we believe the markets are pricing interest rate cuts too soon, this trend will give rise to gold. If central banks continue to purchase at their current rate and consumer demand rises in India and China, Q2 would be very favourable to gold...

Metals

The rally we saw in the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, and sentiment deteriorated since, especially in early May. Strong momentum out of China is absent, but recovery out of the region is underway, with services continuing to outperform. Downstream activity improved amid traditional peak season, but buyers have mostly purchased on the dip as needed. The demand outlook continues to struggle, with end-users showing continued softness in the goods’ sales. While this should lead to further easing in the supply chain issues we have witnessed in the last couple of years, looming recessionary fears are weighing on our demand outlook. With the key central banks ending their monetary policy tightening cycle, the focus is poised to shift away from inflation-centric data to fundamentals, such as economic growth and consumer performance. The historically weaker dollar should provide robust support for metals, but with the lack of a strong incentive, we struggle to see base metals significantly higher in Q2 2023.

Q2 2023