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Latest Non-independent Research
Daily
A morning report covering fundamentals and technicals for USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF.
Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.
Weekly
Our FX Options Report contains commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. This week’s focus is on EURPLN and the currency trajectory following the deteriorating economic outlook in Europe and rising rates in Poland.
Monthly
Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look at the current inflation outlook across LATAM, Europe, U.S. and U.K. and gauge if central banks will slow their rate hikes. Economic data is weakening and China's poor growth and woeful demand could impact policy makers' decisions.
Quarterly
Our analysts provide in-depth analysis into the current macroeconomic conditions and how near-term choppiness may subside in the coming months, once the Fed has confirmed its stance on Monetary Policy. The backwardated spreads in the metals market outline the tightness, and the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could compound tightness in Europe due to lower energy, metals, and grain exports.
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Investment Research
Coffee Crop Update - Bean Counting
Read our short coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, and coffee market forecasts to take advantage of market movements. The weather in Brazil has improved but that is not enough to help the crop that is to be harvested in May. Shipments were stronger than expected given the use of break-bulk, but is this a sustainable way to ship coffee? Macro events have added a new bound of volatility to the market, and we discuss the key themes for the market next month in our new report.
Written by Daria Efanova
Coffee Market Outlook - Going, Going...
The latest outlook provides an in-depth analysis of the coffee market. This includes a macroeconomic assessment of consumer and producer economies. We highlight key headwinds to the demand outlook, most notably rising inflation at a faster rate than wage growth. However, it is all about supply and the Brazilian crop, we expect more clarity in January when we can fully assess the flowering but it does not look good. Colombia has also been negatively impacted by weather and we struggle to find a region that will fill this void.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Electric Vehicle and Battery Material Report Q4 2021
Our analysts provide an insight into the Electric Vehicle and Battery Material Market. They provide an update on how the energy industries in major regions are transitioning towards renewable alternatives, new policies to support EV sales, and a fundamental outlook for Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium. Sales of EVs have repeatedly beaten expectations and this will likely remain the case in 2022 even with the chip shortage. Robust demand for batteries has caused significant tightness in the battery material market.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Hot and Cold - Coffee Market Outlook
Following the release of our Crop Update last month, our analysts provide a more in-depth breakdown of the S&D balance, whilst looking at the damage to the Brazil crop as a result of the drought and frosts. The two weather events combined is unprecedented. We have entered the deficit year and Brazil shipments are falling, and the gross short and defaults are a real threat. Consumption is back to pre-pandemic levels but high prices could cause headwinds to demand in this higher unemployment environment, despite coffee's inelasticity of demand.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Coffee Crop Update - Choppy Waters
Read our short coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, coffee market forecasts and potential trading strategies to take advantage of market movements. The weather in Brazil is still not preferential for a large 2022/23 crop, aiding bullish fundamentals further, but there is a long way to go. Shipments and inventories are starting to fall as we move into a deficit, but the front months are plagued by macro events. Traders need to be patient, but what are the key themes for the market in the next month?
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Electric Vehicle and Battery Material Report
In the first instalment of our new Electric Vehicle and Battery Materials report, Sucden Financial's research team outline key policy changes in the US, China, Europe and Japan, in the last 12-months. We also provide a brief update on global EV sales and developments in battery technologies, in particular cathodes. Finally, our analysts provide a detailed outlook for the battery materials in the coming months.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Brazil in Vogue - Coffee Market Update
Following the release of our Crop Update last month, our analysts provide a more in-depth breakdown of the S&D balance, whilst looking at the bright spots for consumption post-COVID. Brazil shipments are starting to fall, but the deficit has not yet shown its cards. European economic growth lags behind the U.S. and we expect this to remain the case due to poor vaccine policy management, causing consumption growth in the bloc to be weaker.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Patience - Crop Update
Our analysts provide a short update for the coffee market and recent price activity. The weather issues we reported in December are starting to materialise, but shipments and inventories fail to confirm the deficit. Traders need to be patient but what are the key themes for the market in the next month?
Written by Geordie Wilkes
The True Cost of Electric Vehicles - Europe Energy Sector
The fourth of four reports focusing on how the electricity to charge electric vehicles is generated in Europe, comparing their overall efficiency and carbon footprint with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Written by Daria Efanova
Woeful Weather
The latest update of our fundamental coffee market outlook focuses on consumption in recent months, and how recent stimulus packages will help prevent demand destruction. The road ahead is unclear but we provide trading strategies to help navigate the market.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
The True Cost of Electric Vehicles - Japan Energy Sector
The third of four reports focusing on how the electricity to charge electric vehicles is generated in Japan, comparing their overall efficiency and carbon footprint with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Back To The Grind
The latest coffee report continues to analyse the impact COVID-19 has had on demand by re-applying previously used models. Our analysts also go through some recent changes to our crop forecasts and reinforce their trading strategies for the coming months as volatility picks up.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Setting the Scene
The latest update of our fundamental coffee market outlook focuses on consumption in recent months, and how recent stimulus packages will help prevent demand destruction. The road ahead is unclear but we provide trading strategies to help navigate the market.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
The True Cost of Electric Vehicles - China Energy Sector
The second of four reports focusing on how the electricity to charge electric vehicles is generated in China, comparing their overall efficiency and carbon footprint with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Home Time
The latest report outlines the fundamentals of the coffee market and assesses the impact of COVID-19 on demand and supply chain logistics. We outline changes to our forecasts for the 2020/21 season and provide some trading strategies to help navigate this tricky market.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
The True Cost of Electric Vehicles - US Energy Sector
The first of four reports focusing on how the electricity to charge electric vehicles is generated, comparing their overall efficiency and carbon footprint with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Blue Skies Ahead?
The latest episode of our fundamental coffee market outlook looks at whether or not the recent rally will last and gives some trading strategies to help navigate the market.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
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