Expert base, precious and ferrous metal insights
We produce two regular metal outlook reports. Our daily base metals analysis concentrates on the daily LME trading activity and any macroeconomic impacts and trends. Our benchmark Quarterly Metals Report provides an in-depth analysis of the base, precious, and ferrous metal markets and includes our outlook per metal for the months ahead.
Our metal market outlook reports leverage our expertise and position within the metals markets. As a Category 1 member of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and as a member of COMEX and the London Bullion Market Association, we execute and clear a significant proportion of market activity.
Quarterly Metals Report
Our quarterly metals report provides expert analysis and price forecasts for base, precious and ferrous metals, providing metal industry participants with actionable insights.
This in-depth report includes reviews of the macroeconomic environment and outlook for the global economy, central bank activity, analysis of manufacturing PMIs and geo-political influences.
Report highlights are also presented at our quarterly metal market webinars by our research team and an expert from our industrial commodities team, providing broker insights.
The macroeconomic outlook is deteriorating, and in our view, Europe and the UK are in recession already, and the US will be 6 months behind. Higher interest rates, in conjunction with elevated energy and electricity prices, are squeezing households’ disposable income, and new mortgage rates are considerably higher and are now a fixed cost to the consumer. We expect end-user demand to decline, and this will have an impact across the whole supply-chain; although material availability is poor for metals with bonded and exchange warehouses low in stock, this will lead to a dislocated market and volatile price action in spreads, while the macro impacts the flat price. The 20th Party Congress has ended, and their COVID policy is here to stay. As a result, sentiment in China has declined, and if the output of refined materials rises, this will put further pressure on prices. The Fed has increased the rates by 75bps with 50bps to come, but investors are looking at where they pivot, and any dovish language will cause a selloff in the dollar, giving rise to metals prices. If Chinese demand returns and the dollar weakens, this could present significant volatility and price rises, compounded inflationary pressures.
Our analysts provide an in-depth analysis of the metals market and current macroeconomic conditions. The environment has weakened significantly as growth fears rise amid persistent high inflation. Central banks are data-dependent, which could mean they slow rate hikes as growth starts to slow. This has meant a downside to the US 10yr yield, but also we see a downside to rate hikes in Q4. Europe will likely enter a recession before the US and take longer to recover, but material availability is significantly lower, shown by low inventories.
Daily Base Metals Analysis
Our daily base metals reports summarise the day's trading activity for the LME and other key base metal markets. In addition, we provide an overview of the day's significant macroeconomic trends, including relevant energy and precious metals commentary. The report also incorporates base metals pricing data, including LME closing prices.
For longer-term analysis and outlooks, our research team also produce our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals.
Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.
We will email you each time a new report has been published.